Instant Winter of ’14
On Sunday I looked at the maps and groaned. My wife was having none of it. “You love snowstorms” she sighed. “They make you feel important”. Maybe 30 years ago, but today? Not so much. Every storm is a new lesson in humility.
Technology helps, no doubt. We now have scores of weather models to choose from. We look for continuity, agreement between the various simulations. We pay attention to model trends. As early as Sunday models were pulling back on the most extreme snow predictions for the Twin Cities.
My forecast called for a foot for far northern suburbs, a few inches south metro. A sharp snowfall gradient did set up right over the metro area; a huge contrast from Shakopee to St. Cloud & Anoka. Every winter storm is uniquely fickle, this one was no different.
Accumulating snow is over. Now the cold settles in. If it’s any consolation the pattern won’t favor any big storms anytime soon. It’s just going to be too cold; January-like air pushes the main storm track well to our south. Expect a streak of 20s this week; a few nights below zero possible next week.
I sure hope this is payback for a stunning October, not an omen of another bitter, polar vortex winter to come.
Happy Veterans Day.
Snowfall Totals. The map above shows amounts as of 8:30 pm Monday evening. My forecast Sunday called for 5-10″ as a metro-wide average. A little high, yes. The correct range would have been 2-16″, the contrast between Eden Prairie and St. Augusta. Anoka picked up a cool 10″ of snow; 6-9″ amounts pretty common across the north metro. A few hours of freezing rain and sleet Monday morning helped to keep amounts a notch lower than forecast for the rest of the metro. Still plowable, but hardly the end of the world. Click here to see the latest NOAA snowfall map.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 736 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014 ...LATEST AMOUNTS FROM THE NOVEMBER 10TH SNOWSTORM... THE TOTALS BELOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION. SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME ------ ----------------------- -- -------------- ------- 16.50 CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0530 PM 16.50 ST AUGUSTA MN STEARNS 0302 PM 15.00 STARBUCK MN POPE 0337 PM 13.00 MILAN MN CHIPPEWA 0700 PM 13.00 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 1210 PM 12.50 5 NW MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0300 PM 12.50 NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 0300 PM 12.10 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 PM MEASURED AT THE PRISON. 12.00 8 ENE NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 0600 PM 12.00 ST FRANCIS MN ANOKA 0401 PM 11.30 ELK RIVER MN SHERBURNE 0620 PM 11.00 ANNANDALE MN WRIGHT 0630 PM 11.00 MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0420 PM 11.00 3 N BECKER MN SHERBURNE 0403 PM 11.00 5 SW FOLEY MN BENTON 0310 PM 11.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0254 PM 11.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 1235 PM 10.50 ST JOSEPH MN STEARNS 0542 PM 10.50 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0255 PM 10.50 1 ENE BRAHAM MN KANABEC 0120 PM 10.10 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0445 PM 10.00 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0325 PM 10.00 ANOKA MN ANOKA 0310 PM 10.00 5 NNE WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0230 PM 10.00 KINGSTON MN MEEKER 1258 PM 10.00 BENSON MN SWIFT 1225 PM 10.00 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1210 PM 9.50 4 SE OTSEGO MN WRIGHT 0337 PM 9.50 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 1100 AM 9.40 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 0615 PM 9.40 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0355 PM 9.00 3 N ALEXANDRIA MN DOUGLAS 0525 PM 9.00 CUMBERLAND WI BARRON 0222 PM 9.00 MORA MN KANABEC 0217 PM 9.00 5 NE RUSH CITY MN PINE 0200 PM 8.50 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0430 PM 8.00 ST MICHAEL MN WRIGHT 0456 PM 8.00 MORA MN KANABEC 0223 PM RELAYED BY NWS DULUTH. 8.00 LADYSMITH WI RUSK 1200 PM 8.00 5 SW FOLEY MN BENTON 1115 AM 7.80 2 N SAUK CENTRE MN STEARNS 0215 PM 7.60 OTSEGO MN WRIGHT 0336 PM 7.50 WAVERLY MN WRIGHT 0454 PM 7.00 MORA MN KANABEC 0258 PM 7.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 1230 PM 7.00 CUMBERLAND WI BARRON 1210 PM 7.00 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1000 AM 7.0 INCHES OF SNOW MEASURED AT SAINT CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY AS OF 10 AM. 6.70 COSMOS MN MEEKER 0330 PM 6.00 CIRCLE PINES MN ANOKA 0610 PM 6.00 COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 0303 PM 6.00 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 1045 AM 5.50 1 SW LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 1120 AM 5.10 5 NNE BIG LAKE MN SHERBURNE 0900 AM 5.00 ENE BRAHAM MN ISANTI 1000 AM 4.50 MAPLE PLAIN MN HENNEPIN 1145 AM 4.00 1 N CAMERON WI BARRON 1052 AM 3.60 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0100 PM 3.40 WSW LITTLE CANADA MN RAMSEY 0957 AM 3.10 1 NNW NORTH ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0230 PM 3.00 3 SW MSP INTL AIRPORT MN HENNEPIN 0310 PM 3.00 8 NW MSP INTL AIRPORT MN HENNEPIN 1224 PM
Time Warp. The maps look more January than November, at least looking out into the end of next week. In a pattern vaguely similar to last winter polar air becomes temporarily trapped over the USA and southern Canada. Expect highs in the 20s this week; next week looks a notch colder with a couple days in the teens and a subzero low or two possible. Unusual for mid-November, but not unprecedented.
Accumulating Snowfall Potential. The 4 km NAM from NOAA shows heavy snow pushing across northern Wisconsin into the U.P. of Michigan; major cities in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley avoiding accumulating snow, for now. 60-hour snowfall: NOAA and HAMweather.
Leading Edge of Bitter Air. The storm spreading heavy snow across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and eastern Canada marks the leading edge of a polar airmass that would feel right at home in January. I could see a few record cold temperatures by early next week from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley; a possibility of a major nor’easter spinning up as numbing air pushes farther south and east.
A Numbing Couple of Weeks. The map above, courtesy of Climate Reanalyzer, shows unusually cold air rotating into the USA next Monday while the Arctic region is 6-7F warmer than average. Another upside-down weather map. Yes, it brings back some memories of last winter, but will this pattern become locked, stalled like last winter? It’s too early to say, but I doubt it. Some strange things are happening with the world’s weather patterns, but two 30-year winters, back to back? The odds are small (but not zero).
Temperature anomaly map obtained using Climate Reanalyzer (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA
911 Calls From Inside Corn Mazes. Officially A Thing. Because maze panic is no joking matter. Just when you thought you’ve seen everything along comes this story at Modern Farmer; here’s the intro: “The Cool Patch Pumpkins maze, located just outside Sacramento and deemed the largest corn maze in the world by “The Guinness Book of World Records,” has stymied a number of fall wanderers who can’t navigate themselves out of the husky abyss they paid $12 to wander into. Their only seeming recourse? Bring in the authorities. “I think they are overwhelmed,” Daryl Snedeker, a deputy from the Solano County Sheriff’s Department, told CBS Sacramento. “You can get a little worked up when you can’t get out of a place and everything looks the same…”
TODAY: Flurries taper. Cold wind. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 27
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partial clearing, colder. Low: 8
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Feels like 10F. High: 25
THURSDAY: More clouds than sun. A bit numb. Wake-up: 10. High: 23
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Sure missing November. Wake-up: 6. High: 21
SATURDAY: Light snow possible PM hours. Wake-up: 12. High: 26
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy and breezy. Wake-up: 14. High: 29
MONDAY: An even colder front. Wind chill: 5. Wake-up: 8. High: 19
Climate Stories…
Climate Tools Seek To Bend Nature’s Path. If we continue to wait, make continuous excuses and point the finger elsewhere, at some point the temptation will be high to roll the dice and gamble on a short-cut to cool things down, hacking the climate. What can possibly go wrong there? Here’s a clip from a story at The New York Times: “…Once considered the stuff of wild-eyed fantasies, such ideas for countering climate change — known as geoengineering solutions, because they intentionally manipulate nature — are now being discussed seriously by scientists. The National Academy of Sciences is expected to issue a report on geoengineering later this year. That does not mean that such measures, which are considered controversial across the political spectrum, are likely to be adopted anytime soon. But the effects of climate change may become so severe that geoengineering solutions could attract even more serious consideration…”
This Chart Shows Just How Much Humans Are Driving Global Warming. Business Insider has the article; here’s the introduction: “Despite overwhelming scientific evidence that humans are responsible for climate change, debate still exists in the general public. In the United States alone, at least 15 states are currently governed by known climate deniers, and several states have taken measures to keep the best climate science out of public policy. But a quick look at the science leaves little doubt that the rising temperatures we’ve been observing for decades now are our own fault…”
Voters Put Climate Change Policy In The Hands of Climate Change Denier. Here’s an excerpt of an Op-Ed from David Horsey at The Los Angeles Times: “…Actually, what he calls a “conspiracy” is more a threat to the future of the big oil and gas companies that have been the most generous contributors to Inhofe’s reelection campaigns. As far as actual danger, there are few places in the country more in peril than Inhofe’s Oklahoma and the lower Great Plains. Record temperatures, drought and water depletion are already big problems in the region. If climate scientists are correct and the current crisis is just a hint of worse days to come, one would think Inhofe might want to open his mind to the possibility he could be wrong about how wonderful climate change is going to be for his constituents…”
Colleges Tackle Climate Change. The Minnesota Daily has the article; here’s an excerpt: “…University of Minnesota Water Resources interim director Faye Sleeper said the number of people interested in climate change and its damaging effects is growing, especially on college campuses. “Many people don’t know where to start, but I think the public is finally starting to understand that it will impact their lives,” she said. Sleeper nodded to the Twin Cities campus’s various projects, like its push to reduce gas emissions in its buildings and its kick-starting the “It All Adds Up” campaign, as examples of how colleges can aid in solving global problems...”
The Fact That Climate Change Lost Big In This Election Could Be A Huge Win. Interesting spin. We’ll see, I want to remain optimistic, no matter which party is in power, but we’re still just spinning our wheels, and so is every other country on Earth. Here’s an excerpt of an Eric Holthaus article at Slate: “…But this election cycle, campaigners concerned with the future of the planet also won a subtle but extremely important victory: Climate change is something people are finally talking about. According to exit poll data, global warming is now the most polarizing issue to Republicans—beating even Obama’s signature health care laws. But at least it’s an issue. This is in sharp contrast to 2012, when the two presidential candidates barely mentioned the issue at all. Even if the 2014 election wasn’t primarily about climate, it was one of the social issues that resonated most strongly with voters…”