August 3, 1904: Half of Waconia was destroyed by an F4 tornado. Thirty homes were utterly destroyed, and the debris was carried for miles.
August 3, 1898: Storms dump 4.5 inches of rain on Montevideo. Soure: Twin Cities National Weather Service.
What August?
I am in big trouble.
I forgot to set my alarm clock and somehow slept thru the entire month of August; waking up on September 4. I missed my father’s 85th birthday, the big SAVE golf tournament at TPC in Blaine to benefit suicide awareness on August 10, and the wide array of heart-healthy foods and exotic-people-watching at the Minnesota State Fair.
My 7-Day Outlook calls for narcolepsy.
What the heck happened to August? Climate data indicates average highs drop from 83F on August 1 to 78F by the 31st. It wouldn’t be August without the Dog Days, sweaty dew points and obnoxious Back to School Sales. I missed it all.
A brewing Super El Nino may spark some head-scratching weather into the winter months, with a warm bias likely over much of the USA into spring of 2016. No, this early puff of autumn doesn’t mean an early fall or a harsh winter is imminent. This still falls under the heading of normal weather variability.
Temperatures trend below average into late next week as we enter a drier pattern now. T-showers are possible by Thursday, again on Monday of next week.
August is prime time for wildfires and tropical storms. The hottest days are behind us, at least on paper. Let’s see if Mother Nature plays along.
Floods Swamp Tampa Area. Swarms of heavy thunderstorms sprouting along a temporarily stalled frontal boundary have squeezed out excessive rains on much of Florida for 2-3 weeks, with Tampa bearing the brunt of flash flooding, as reported by USA TODAY; here’s an excerpt: “…Heavy rain caused widespread flooding in the Tampa Bay area Monday, closing roads, forcing evacuations and delaying air travel. Up to 1 1/2 feet of rain fell in parts of the Tampa metro area the past 10 days, the National Weather Service said. Measurable rain has fallen for 14 days consecutively in Tampa. By Monday morning, Tampa already exceeded its average August rainfall with more than 8 inches of rain, and it’s only Aug. 3, the Weather Channel reported...”
Midwestern Storms: 1 Dead, 16 Injured, Lollapalooza Music Festival Briefly Evacuated. The Weather Channel has video and more details; here’s an excerpt: “…One person died and 15 others were transported to local hospitals after strong winds toppled a tent at the Wood Dale Prairie Fest in Wood Dale, Illinois, the Chicago Tribune reported. Among those hurt, at least three were seriously injured, the report added. In a statement released Sunday, Wood Dale Mayor Nunzio Pulice said, “Our thoughts and prayers are with the family of the deceased and we are also praying for all those who were injured or affected by this tragedy...”
Circus Tent Collapses In New Hampshire, Killing Two. As meteorologists this is one of our greatest fears: hundreds or thousands of people outside, at the mercy of severe storms. Where are spectators or fans to go? Back to their vehicles in the parking lot? If there are no significant shelters (preferably below ground, below grade) nearby, if all you have is a tent, or even an open-air stadium, the options for safe shelter are few. The New York Times reports.
Flash Flood Risk Thursday? It’s early to making such pronouncements, but NAM guidance hints at a few waves of heavy showers and T-storms rippling along a stalled frontal boundary Thursday and Thursday night, capable of some heavy rainfall amounts across central Minnesota. With any luck Florida will finally dry out.
84 Hour Rainfall Prediction. This is courtesy of NOAA’s 12 km NAM model, and it shows the heaviest rains pushing across the Ohio Valley and central Minnesota by Thursday and Thursday night. California remains bone-dry and prone to erratic wildfires. No sign of El Nino-fueled rains kicking in just yet. Source: AerisWeather.
Summer On Hold. It may look and feel a little more like early September than early August out there for the next 10-12 days. No drippy dew points, no extended stretch of 90s, no Dog-Day-babble on the radio or TV. Mornings will be a little on the cool side but afternoons will be very pleasant with dew points mostly in the 50s. The best chance of storms: Thursday, again Monday of next week. Source: Weatherspark.
Missing: One Year’s Worth of California Rain. Climate Central puts California’s historic drought into stark perspective; here’s a snippet: “…The study’s researchers pin the reason for the lack of rains, as others have, on the absence of the intense rainstorms ushered in by so-called atmospheric rivers, the ribbons of very moist air that can funnel water vapor from the tropics to California during its winter rainy season. Overall, the study, accepted for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres, found that California experiences multi-year dry periods, like the current one, and then periods where rains can vary by 30 percent from year to year. Those wet and dry years typically cancel each other out...”
Graphic image credit above: “California’s accumulated precipitation debt from 2012 to 2014 shown as a percent change from the 17-year average using the TRMM mission’s multi-satellite observations.” Credit: Goddard’s Scientific Visualization Studio
Heat, Drought Cook Fish Alive in Pacific Northwest. Here’s an excerpt from USA TODAY: “Freakishly hot, dry weather in the Pacific Northwest is killing millions of fish in the overheated waters of the region’s rivers and streams. “We’ve lost about 1.5 million juvenile fish this year due to drought conditions at our hatcheries,” Ron Warren of Washington State’s Department of Fish and Wildlife said in a statement. “This is unlike anything we’ve seen for some time...”
Photo credit above: “
Expert Analysis Finds That The Clean Power Plan Is Not A Threat To Midwestern Power Grid Reliability. Here is the intro to a J. Drake Hamilton analysis at Fresh Energy: “Working toward an electricity system that aggressively lowers carbon pollution requires a well-operated regional power grid for success. Today’s interconnected electric power grid is reliable, affordable, and increasingly carries clean electricity. Tomorrow’s integrated electric grid must be cleaner still, as well as reliable and affordable. The emerging modern, efficient power grid must be designed and operated to reduce environmental impacts, including allowing Minnesota and its neighbors to comply with the nation’s first (and long overdue) limits on carbon pollution from our existing coal-burning power plants; these standards, to be finalized this summer, are known as the Clean Power Plan…”
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, closer to average. Wake-up: 60. High: 82
THURSDAY: Few T-showers in the area. Wake-up: 65. High: 78
FRIDAY: Sunny intervals, a drier day. Wake-up: 66. High: 81
SATURDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Wake-up: 67. High: near 80
SUNDAY: Hazy sun, isolated T-shower. Wake-up: 66. High: 83
MONDAY: Better chance of T-showers. Wake-up: 66. High: 80
5 Myths About The New U.S. Climate Plan: What You May Not Know. National Geographic provides some timely perspective; here’s a clip: “…Still, coal will be hit hard. Once the dominant source of U.S. electricity, it’s been on the wane in recent years as it’s struggled to comply with federal limits on mercury emissions and lower natural gas prices. Coal, which generated 34 percent of U.S. power in the first five months of this year—down from 49 percent in 2007, emits about twice as much carbon as natural gas when burned. The rule will shutter more coal-fired power plants. It’s likely to more than double the number of closures by 2040, the EIA recently forecast. Most shutdowns will occur by 2020, cutting coal power generation by one-fifth...”
Photo credit above: “West Virginia, where this coal-fired power plant is located, and other coal-heavy states face pressure to cut emission as part of a new Obama Administration proposal.” Photo by Skip Brown, National Geographic.
Do Americans Have Enough Zeal for Obama’s Climate Change Plan. We know the EPA’s new Clean Power Plan will create more billable hours for lawyers hired by fossil fuel interests who have every incentive to fight this, but will Americans get on-board? Here’s an excerpt from Christian Science Monitor: “…But perhaps most important to the survival of the president’s new vision of American energy is the support of the American people. President Obama has now put the US on a path largely pioneered by a handful of Western European nations, such as Sweden and Germany. Particularly in Germany’s case, those experiments have not gone smoothly. Germany now has some of the highest energy prices in Europe. But public support has remained strong, even as energy companies have pushed back on the changes. In short, the residents of those countries wanted to be green-energy leaders, so they have been…”
The Moral and Scientific Urgency of EPA’s Clean Power Plan. Joe Romm makes the case at ThinkProgress; here’s the intro: “The next few years are unprecedented in human history. We know with unusually high scientific certainty that the near-term choices we as a nation and a species make about carbon pollution will determine whether or not we will destroy our livable climate in the coming decades — thereby ruining the lives of billions of people irreversibly for centuries to come. We have no right to destroy the soil (and other elements of a livable climate) for our children and future generations — a point Thomas Jefferson explained was universally self-evident in a 1789 letter to James Madison…”
Sea Level Rise Set To Accelerate in Coming Decades. Forget “debating the science”, which is no clear-cut and unambiguous; what would all the presidential contenders do to address the low-grade risks associated with man-made climate change like the steady rise in sea level? That’s not a climate model, that’s reality. Here’s an excerpt from The Union of Concerned Scientists: “…Over the next 30 years—the short length of a typical home mortgage—sea levels are expected to rise a foot or more in locations up and down the Eastern seaboard and along the Gulf coast. More than three million Americans live within three vertical feet of the average high tide line. They face growing threats from coastal storms and flooding events. Now is the time to prepare our communities for rising seas. Now is the time to take action to reduce the carbon emissions that are driving global warming. The next president will play a pivotal role in this effort...”
Which Advanced Country Has The Most Climate Skeptics? Hint: It’s Not The United States. DeSmogBlog takes a look way down under; here’s the intro: “It’s not necessarily a competition you should be particularly keen to win, but which country in the world has the most climate change “sceptics”? Most people would probably hazard a guess at the United States, what with its preponderance of climate science denialist think tanks, conservative television and radio hosts and politicians who think it’s all a hoax. But a new study that analysed identical surveys carried out across 14 industrialised nations has found that when it comes to climate science denial, Australia tops the pile...”
Tracking The Retreat of Arctic Ice. I’m sure it’s just another cosmic coincidence. Phys.org has the story; here’s an excerpt: “Not so long ago, skeleton staff overwintering at the Ny-Alesund research centre could walk on the Arctic town’s frozen bay and race their snow mobiles across its surface. Now there is liquid water even in the coldest months, the glaciers are retreating at a rate of hundreds of metres per year, and alien species from warmer climes are making the bay their home, say longtime residents of the sparsely-populated town on the Norwegian island of Spitsbergen. “In the 1990s, we could cross the bay in snow mobiles,” recalled Juergen Graeser, a technician at the Franco-German Awipev research station which collects weather, atmospheric and chemical data. “The last time we could walk on it was in the winter of 2003-04…”
Image credit above: “Not so long ago, skeleton staff overwintering at the Ny-Alesund research center could walk on the Arctic town’s frozen bay and race their snowmobiles across its surface.”