Welcome Guests - Is It Cold Enough For Ya?

Satellite Image From Space

Here’s a neat NOAA satellite image that the @NWSMKX shared early Friday morning prior to sunrise. Interestingly, you can see the city lights of the Twin Cities along with the snow swath that fell nearly 2 weeks ago across southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. If you look close enough, you can actually see the ice cover on Lake Mille Lacs and Leech Lake.

Great Lakes Satellite Image

Here’s another stunning image from over the Great Lakes early Friday morning. Several city lights and lake effect snow bands can be seen in the image below! WOW!

Weather Outlook

Here’s the weather outlook from AM Saturday to Sunday night, which shows a fast moving clipper rolling through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. This will be responsible for up to a few inches of fluffy snow for some as it blows through. The clipper will also tap into another fresh batch of cold air, which will get tugged into the Twin Cities just in time for the big game on Sunday.

Snowfall Potential: NWS NDFD Forecast

The clipper moving through the upper Midwest on Saturday into early Sunday will be responsible for a couple/few inches of snow across the region. The best chance of 1″ to 2″ (isolated 3″) of snow looks to fall mainly across central Minnesota. The Twin Cities could see 1″ to 2″ of fluffy snow, which could create some travel issues through the day.

Light Snow Saturday

Here’s the latest weather story from the @NWSTwinCities regarding Saturday’s snowfall potential.

“There is a chance of light snow or flurries later today, but a much better chance will arrive Saturday. Accumulations of 2 to 3 inches are expected north of I-94, with amounts tapering off to the south. Sunday is expected to be the coldest day of the next week with highs in the single digits.”

Weather Outlook for Super Bowl LII

Plans for the big game on Sunday? Here’s the weather outlook for Sunday, which shows cold weather in place all day! Highs will only be in the single digits with sub-zero wind chills throughout the day. This will easily be THE coldest Super Bowl on record… Nice to know that game will be indoors. BRR!!

COLD Temps & Dangerous Wind Chills This Weekend

The National Weather Service has issued a “Special Weather Statement” regarding the dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills that will accompany the Super Bowl festivities this weekend in the Twin Cities. The image below shows the coldest wind chills possible by early Sunday morning. Note that it could feel more like -10F to -20F, which means that frostbite could happen in 30mins or less! Bundle up!! Here’s the Special Weather Statement:

…HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS THIS WEEKEND IN THE TWIN CITIES…

Bitterly cold air and wind will result in wind chill temperatures colder than 10 below for most of Saturday night through Sunday night.

The following steps are recommended to prevent frostbite and hypothermia when out and about in the cold weather:

-Dress in layers. Begin with a long-sleeved base layer next to your skin that is composed of a fabric that breathes and is relatively light. The mid layer should be similar to a fleece pullover or sweatshirt. The top layer should be a shell that acts as a windbreaker.

-Wear a warm hat and scarf, and cover all exposed skin.

-Wear wool socks and insulated, waterproof boots.

-Eat hot food and drink warm fluids several times throughout the day. -Seek medical attention at the first signs of frostbite, which include ice crystals forming on skin, skin feels warm prior to being defrosted, or skin turns red, pale or white.

Cold Weekend Followed By Gradual Warming

Temperatures this weekend will be chilly, but Sunday will be the coldest day with highs only in the single digits! Folks taking part in Super Bowl festivities this weekend will want to be prepared for the cold. The good news is that the extended forecast shows gradual warming over the next couple of weeks. Next week, temps will warm into the 10s and 20s, but the following week could warm into the 20s and 30s. In fact, the ECMWF (European models) is suggesting highs near 40F by Valentine’s Day.

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“Groundhog Day 2018: Punxsutawney Phil predicts 6 more weeks of winter”

“The results of Groundhog Day 2018 are in: According to legend, we’re in for six more weeks of winter because Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow. That’s in spite of forecasts that predicted a cloudy, shadow-less morning. The Pennsylvania groundhog isn’t the only weather-predicting rodent in this quirky American tradition, but he is the most famous. And according to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, his opinion is the only one that matters. He’s not always right. But he’s always popular. Meanwhile, across state lines in New Jersey, Milltown Mel predicted an early spring. At 7:25 a.m. Eastern time on a hill outside Punxsutawney, Pa., known as Gobbler’s Knob, the seemingly immortal Phil — the same rodent who launched the tradition in 1887, if you believe his handlers — looked for his shadow.”

See more from USAToday

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February Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Here’s NOAA’s February temperatures and precipitation outlook, which suggests that colder and wetter than average conditions will be found across the northern tier of the nation and especially from the Midwest to the Northeast. However, warmer and drier than average conditions look to continue across the southern and western US.

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Snow Depth 2018

The snow depth map across the country for February 2nd suggests that 30.5% of the country is covered in snow, mainly across the northern half of the nation. At this time last year, 41.3% of the nation was covered in snow. As of February 2nd, the Twin Cities officially had 4″ of snow on the ground at the MSP Airport, but at this time last year, there was only a Trace on the ground. Note also that last year at this time, the Sierra Nevada Range in California had a significantly greater snow pack than what is there now.

Snow Depth 2017

At this time last year, 41.3% of the nation was covered in snow.

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“Minnesota Sees Deadliest Winter In Years”

“Minnesota has already had five ice-related deaths this winter. The state typically averages three during the whole season. Minnesota is on track to have one of its deadliest winters in years. Five people have died this season after falling through ice. The state typically averages three ice-related deaths over the course of the entire winter. The 2015-2016 winter had zero ice-related deaths, while the 2016-2017 winter had two. The last time Minnesota saw ice-related deaths in the double digits was in the 2002-2003 winter, when the state had 10 fatalities. The most recent death this year happened in northern Minnesota where a women drowned after riding an ATV on Rice Lake. Minnesota Department of Natural Resources conservation officer Hannah Mishler has already responded to multiple ice rescue calls. “Ice, especially snow covered ice, is extremely deceptive. You can’t see dangerous cracks or the thickness of the ice under the snow,” Mishler said in a statement.”

See more from Patch HERE:

Ice Safety!!

Before you go testing the ice on area lakes and ponds, remember that “ICE IS NEVER 100% SAFE!” So when is ice safe? Here is an excerpt from the MN DNR regarding ice safety:

“There really is no sure answer. You can’t judge the strength of ice just by its appearance, age, thickness, temperature, or whether or not the ice is covered with snow. Strength is based on all these factors — plus the depth of water under the ice, size of the water body, water chemistry and currents, the distribution of the load on the ice, and local climatic conditions.”

General Ice Thickness Guidelines

Here are some general ice thickness guidelines from the MN DNR:

For new, clear ice ONLY:

Under 4″ – STAY OFF
4″ – Ice fishing or other activities on foot
5″ – 7″ – Snowmobile or ATV
8″ – 12″ – Car or small pickup
12″ – 15″ – Medium truck

Many factors other than thickness can cause ice to be unsafe.
White ice or “snow ice” is only about half as strong as new clear ice. Double the above thickness guidelines when traveling on white ice.

See more from the MN DNR HERE:

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Temperature Anomaly on Friday

The image below shows the temperature anomaly across North America from Friday, which showed well below average temperatures across much of Canada and the eastern half of the country. However, note that the western and southwestern US was still WELL above average with temps running +10F to almost +20F above average.

Temperature Trend

Here’s the 850mb temperature anomaly from midday Saturday to Monday night, which suggests mild colder than average temperatures funneling south of the International border through the weekend and into early next week. However, warmer than average temperatures will continue in the Western and Southwestern US.

High Temps Saturday

High temps across the country on Saturday will still be running a bit below average from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Northeast, while another surge of even colder air will start making its way back into the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, folks from the Plains to the West Coast will see temps in the +10F to +20F above average range.

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Critical Fire Weather on Saturday

According to NOAA’s SPC, critical fire weather concerns will be in place across parts of eastern New Mexico and far western Texas on Saturday. Warm, dry and breezy conditions will make these areas susceptible to wildfires, which if they do start could quickly spread out of control.

Weather Outlook Ahead

Weather conditions through the weekend look fairly active across the northern tier of the nation with areas of rain and shovelable snow from the Northwest to the East Coast. Late weekend will be even more active as a larger storm develops east of the Mississippi River. Heavy rain and thunder will be possible in the Southeast, while shoveable and plowable snow will fall in the Northeast.

5 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA’s WPC, the 5-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavy precipitation continuing in the Northwest with several inches of precipitaiton from the Central and Northern Rockies to the northern Cascades. There will also be another batch of heavy precipitation in the Lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast States through the middle part of next week. Unfortunately, much of California and the Southwest will stay dry over the next 5 to 7 days.

Snowfall Potential Ahead

The snowfall potential through midweek suggests areas of heavy snow falling across parts of the central and northern rockies along with the northern Cascades. Lighter batches of snow will fall across parts of the Midwest, but heavier snow maybe possible across the Northeast over the next several days.

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Welcome Guests – Is It Cold Enough For Ya?
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

I don’t know about you, but I’m in a football state of mind. The Twin Cities population is swelling in advance of the Big game Sunday and the anticipation is palpable! Can you feel it?

One question for those visiting. Is it cold enough for ya? Yep, you betcha!

Sunday’s game is forecast to become the coldest Super Bowl on record in its 52 year history with highs in the single digits & wind chills in the sub-zero range. Uffda! Don’t be shy, ask any Minnesotan how to survive this kind of cold. They’ll tell you to layer up and fill your belly with a good hot dish. Don’t turn down the diverse dessert offers and prepare for “The Minnesota Long Goodbye”. Welcome to the true “Bold North”.

A fast moving clipper scoots through the region Saturday with 1″ to 2″ of powdery white gold by the Saturday evening. Snow globe weather gives way to character building cold Saturday night and Sunday morning as feels like temps dip into the -10F to -20F range.

Did you really think Minnesota weather wouldn’t disappoint? We’re memorable folk. Duck, Duck Grey Duck.

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Extended Forecast

SATURDAY: 1″ to 2″ of fluffy snow by late afternoon/evening. Winds: N 5-10. High: 19.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Light snow ends early. Cold. Winds: N 5-10. Low: -1 (Feels like: -15F).

SUNDAY: Cold sunshine. Fine football weather. Winds: WNW 5-10. High: 7.

MONDAY: Sub-zer start. PM snow southern MN. Winds: WSW 5. Wake-up: -2. High: 15.

TUESDAY: Mix of sun and clouds. Winds: NNW 5. Wake-up: 0. High: 15.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds thicken. Snow at night. Winds: WSW 5. Wake-up: 4. High: 16.

THURSDAY: AM flurries. Peeks of PM sun. Winds: NNE 5. Wake-up: 1. High: 15.

FRIDAY: Snowy across southern MN again. Winds: NNE 10-15. Wake-up: 2. High: 18.
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This Day in Weather History
February 3rd

1989: Bitterly cold temperatures occur across Minnesota with lows in the 40-below-zero range in the north.

1947: A strong dust storm hits Crookston with winds near 50 mph. Visibility was reduced down to 300 feet.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
February 3rd

Average High: 26F (Record: 51F set in 1934)
Average Low: 9F (Record: -32F set in 1996)

Record Rainfall: 0.80″ set in 1919
Record Snowfall: 8.8″ set in 2016
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
February 3rd

Sunrise: 7:30am
Sunset: 5:24pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 54 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 37 seconds
Daylight GAINED since winter solstice (December 21st): 1 Hour 8 Minutes
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Moon Phase for January 30th at Midnight
3.7 Days Since Full “Snow” Moon

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Temp Outlook For Saturday

Temps on Saturday will be a little warmer ahead of a clipper that will be responsible for some fluffy snow accumulations across parts of the region. However, note the MUCH colder air perched across the Red River Valley. This air will cut in on the backside of the clipper and sag south across much of the region on Sunday.

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8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

Here’s the temperature outlook as we head into the 2nd week of February, which suggests that colder than temperatures will be in place across much of the region. While temperatures will likely be colder than average, it doesn’t appear to have as big of a bite that it had at the end of December and early January.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

As we head into the 2nd week of February, warmer than average temperatures will still be in place across the Southwestern and Southeastern US, while much of the central and northern part of the nation will still be running below average.

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“Polar Bears Wearing Cameras and Fitbits Reveal an Arctic Struggle for Survival”

“As Arctic sea ice disappears with global warming, polar bears will have a harder time catching seals. A new study shows how that puts their survival at risk. It’s not easy out there for a polar bear in the era of climate change, and according to a study released today, it’s even harder than previously thought. When scientists studied polar bears they had captured, outfitted with cameras and released, they found that the bears’ metabolism was 1.6 times higher than previously thought, making it harder for the animals to find enough food. In short: too many calories burned and not enough calories consumed.”

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“The West is in the middle of a serious snow drought”

“Snowpack is far below average, thanks to a combination of low precipitation and above-average temperatures. Despite heading into the middle what is normally snow season, areas from Oregon to Nevada aren’t necessarily feeling the chill. Months of above-average temperatures and a slow start to the winter wet season have combined to leave much of the Western United States facing a snow drought, with snow levels in many places measuring less than a quarter of their historical average. Unlike its more familiar meteorological cousin, a snow drought doesn’t necessarily mean that no precipitation is falling. But in places like Oregon, warmer temperatures mean that precipitation this year has largely fallen as rain — an ominous sign for the region’s winter economy, and a worrying harbinger of a potentially water-scarce spring and summer.”

See more from ThinkProgress HERE:

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“The Slick Science of Making Olympic Snow and Ice”

“One of the more crucial components -and often the most overlooked by spectators- is the ice and snow under the performing athletes. The Games cannot rely on the weather providing the required conditions for skiing, skating, and sledding. And the quality of the ice and snow is important for the fastest races and the most intricate stunts. Bumps on a bobsled run? They’ll not only ruin an Olympic race, they’re also dangerous. Tracy Seitz of Whistler Sliding Centre in Canada explains the intricacies of Olympic ice. The ice for indoor rinks is built to different standards for speed skating, figure skating, curling, and hockey. And the snow under skiers and snowboarders is engineered for speed as well, with the added difficulty of dealing with the vagaries of actual weather. Read about the different kinds of snow and ice and how they are created for the Olympics at Smithsonian.”

See more from Neatorama HERE:

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“Mega Cities Poised to Become the Hottest and Most Dangerous Places Under Climate Change”

“RISING TEMPERATURES It’s no secret that temperatures around the world are rising. 2017’s record temperatures, prolific hurricane season, and heavy rainfall prompted the World Economic Forum to predict that extreme weather would be the biggest threat in 2018. A team of researchers from the University of California, Irvine analyzed data from 9,000 weather stations around the world and determined the global temperature has increased by 0.19 degrees Celsius each decade for the last 50 years. They also noted that the increase was even more pronounced in the last 30 years — a 0.25 degree-increase each between 1986 and 2015.”

See more from Futurism HERE:

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“Understanding Diurnal Temperature Range”

“How the Atmosphere Heats and Cools During a 24-Hour Period. All things in nature have a diurnal or “daily” pattern simply because they change throughout the course of a day. In meteorology, the term “diurnal” most often refers to the change of temperature from the daytime high to the nighttime low. Why Highs Don’t Happen at High Noon The process of reaching a daily high (or low) temperature is a gradual one. It begins each morning when the Sun rises and its rays extend toward and strike the Earth’s surface. Solar radiation directly heats the ground, but because of land’s high heat capacity (ability to store heat), the ground doesn’t immediately warm. Just as a pot of cold water must first warm before coming to a boil, so must the land absorb a certain amount of heat before its temperature rises. As the ground’s temperature warms, it heats a shallow layer of air directly above it by conduction. This thin layer of air, in turn, heats the column of cool air above it.”

See more from Thought Co. HERE:

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“How Australian trees beat extreme heat by sweating”

“Researchers from Western Sydney University have uncovered the novel strategies Australian eucalypt trees use to survive extreme heatwaves. One remarkable process involves the tree evaporating large volumes of water through its leaves in a process is similar to sweating. The study involved the University’s novel Whole Tree Chambers, which give researchers the ability to grow trees up to a height of 9 m (29.5 ft) in fully enclosed and controllable environments that allow air temperature, soil moisture, irrigation, CO2 levels and humidity to be manipulated. Six Parramatta Gums (Eucalyptus parramattensis) were grown in the chambers for 12 months under conditions simulating an average of 3° C (5.4° F) warmer than average, while six were grown under ambient temperature conditions.”

See more from New Atlas HERE:

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Thanks for checking in and don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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