Cold February Start – 1-3″ Of Snow Early Saturday

Wind Chill Advisory

Wind Chill Advisories have been issued for central and northern Minnesota Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning, as wind chills are expected to drop into the -20s and -30s.

Wind chills will be coldest Wednesday Night across northern Minnesota, where it’ll feel like the -30s at times. The coldest wind chill expected in the Twin Cities Wednesday Night will be around -15F.

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February 4th Twin Cities Climatology For The Super Bowl

The Minnesota Climatology Office has put together a page showing climatology facts for February 4th in the Twin Cities – the date of Super Bowl LII. Here’s what they say about snow depth and amount of sunshine in early February:

“In reality, the weather for the first week of February can vary greatly. At times, it can be the coldest part of the winter and “sporting” some of the deepest snow depths. The chances of seeing no snow cover occurs in about 1 in 10 years. Having a snow depth of about six inches happens about half the time and having at least a foot of snow on the ground is about 15% of the time. It is also the time of year that the length of day light becomes noticeably longer. By February 4, there is about one hour and fifteen minutes of extra daylight since December 21. On February 4, 2018 the sun will rise at 7:29 am and set at 5:25pm, Central Standard Time in the Twin Cities.”

The Southeast Regional Climate Center also has a fact sheet on past weather for all Super Bowls. According to their data, the coldest high for a dome game was 16 back in 1982 (played at the Silverdome in Pontiac, MI). The coldest high for a non-dome game was 43 back in 1972 (played at Tulane Stadium in New Orleans, LA).

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Cold February Start – 1-3″ Of Snow Early Saturday
By DJ Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

Happy February!

That’s right, the first month of the year has already flown by, and we saw some interesting weather last month. Our January average temp will end slightly above average behind some wild temperature swings. The warmest high last month was 47 on the 26th, but we only saw a high of 1 to begin the month. We also saw heavy snow, finishing the month with just over 20″ of snow at the Twin Cities airport.

February will start off cold, with highs in the single digits and teens through early next week. Sunday morning will be the coldest of the next seven with wind chills approaching -20F. A cold day is expected for “LII” as game time temperatures will only be in the single digits (but it’ll be much warmer inside the stadium).

We’re also keeping an eye on a couple snow-makers. The first comes Friday Night into Saturday, with a quick 1-3” possible. Another chance rolls in Monday and Monday Night, but models currently keep the heaviest snow to our south for any early week/post-“LII” travels.

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Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Breezy. AM wind chill -15F. High 6. Low -5. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Late day snow. High 15. Low 7. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind S 5-10 mph.
SATURDAY: Snow likely, especially in the morning. High 13. Low -8. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind NW 5-15 mph.
SUNDAY: Another cold air blast for “LII”. High 7. Low -5. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
MONDAY: Warmer temperatures. PM snow showers. High 16. Low 1. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.
TUESDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. High 12. Low -2. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Another light snow chance. High 12. Low -3. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 3-8 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
February 1st

1931: A ‘heat wave’ develops across southern Minnesota. St. Peter hits 60.

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
February 1st

Average High: 25F (Record: 54F set in 1931)
Average Low: 9F (Record: -28F set in 1951)
Average Precipitation: 0.02″ (Record: 0.89″ set in 1922)
Average Snow: 0.3″ (Record: 6.7″ set in 2004)

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
February 1st

Sunrise: 7:32 AM
Sunset: 5:21 PM

*Length Of Day: 9 hours, 48 minutes and 30 seconds
*Daylight Gained Since Yesterday: ~2 minutes and 35 seconds

*Next Sunrise at/before 7:30 AM: February 3rd (7:30 AM)
*Next Sunset at/after 5:30 PM: February 8th (5:31 PM)

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Minnesota Weather Outlook

Here comes the first blast of cold air to end the week for Thursday, as highs will only be in the single digits across most of the state. Across northern Minnesota, those highs will have a negative sign behind them, as places like International Falls and Bemidji won’t make it above zero.

Brr – highs Thursday will be a good 10-20 degrees below average for this time of year. Perfect weather to welcome visitors to town for the Super Bowl, right?

Temperatures will be warmer Friday across the state, making it into the teens across southern and central Minnesota (even some 20s across southwestern Minnesota). Single digits are still expected across northern Minnesota, though. We will be watching the potential of snow, mainly late in the day into the overnight hours.

These warmer temperatures (in the teens) will last into Saturday before a second blast of cold air moves in behind the Friday Night/Saturday snow. For Super Bowl Sunday, we’ll start off near -10 below in the morning hours, only climbing to highs in the single digits.

As that next storm system moves through Friday Night into Saturday, 1-3″ of fresh snow is likely across central and southern Minnesota. Another system will pass by Monday into Monday Night. Right now models have that system mainly passing to our south, with the heaviest snow across Iowa, however we will watch it closely over the next few days. The extended forecast has more light snow chances into the middle of February.

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National Weather Forecast

Highs Thursday will range from below zero across portions of Minnesota and North Dakota to the 80s across southern Texas and into the Southwest. A frontal system will bring the chance of rain from Texas to the Northeast. Snow is expected across the Great Lakes and in the the Northeast. Meanwhile, more rain and snow is likely for the Pacific Northwest.

Cold air will continue to plunge south and east into Thursday, with below average temperatures possible as far south as northern Texas. Most of the east and west coasts will see above average temperatures.

Rainfall totals could top 1-3″ across portions of the southern and eastern U.S. over the next five days due to two different systems – one on Thursday, and another heading into early next week. Rounds of rain will once again take aim on the Northwest, where liquid totals of 2-4″+ are possible.

Up to a foot or more of snow will be possible across the upper peninsula of Michigan through Friday evening due to lake effect snow. Heavy snow – in some areas a foot or more –  will also be possible in the higher elevations of the Northwest.

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New U.S. Lightning Capital

Florida isn’t the lightning capital of the U.S. anymore according to Vaisala. More from the Orlando Sentinel: “Florida has long claimed to have the nation’s fiercest lightning.  Strike that. The state is no longer indisputably the U.S. lightning leader. The most persistent bolts are not in Florida but, by a thin margin, occur along Mississippi’s Gulf of Mexico coast.  “That surprised me,” said Melanie Scott, a meteorologist with Vaisala. Her company specializes in lightning detection and provides the National Weather Service, airports and industry with statistics on when and where flashes occur.”

Winter Sports And Climate Change

Climate chance is threatening winter sports. In fact, a study shows that only eight of the past 21 Winter Olympic cities would be cold enough to host snow-based sports in the 2080s. More from the Economist: “Daniel Scott of the University of Waterloo, Robert Steiger of the University of Innsbruck, and others, have looked at this future warming in the context of the cities chosen to host the Winter Olympics, from Chamonix in 1924 to Pyeongchang in South Korea next month and Beijing in 2022. Even if emissions are cut to meet the target of the Paris climate agreement of 2015, only 13 of the 21 look certain to be cold enough to host snow-sports in the 2050s. With high emissions, the number would drop to just eight in the 2080s (see chart 1). The sight of helicopters rushing snow to Olympic sites in Vancouver in 2010 may be a harbinger of the future.”

Banana Alert

If you’re shopping for bananas in the next couple weeks, you may want to see this from Produce Alliance: “We wanted to alert you that over the past few weeks we have encountered rain and colder temperatures in the growing regions of Guatemala, Costa Rica, and Mexico. Due to the nature of these weather conditions, the overall production of bananas has been negatively affected. At this time, we are also noticing inconsistency in quality of the product. As a result, please be aware that you may see quality and supply issues over the next few weeks. As conditions remain less than favorable, we will continue to seek alternative sourcing if possible and will continue to carefully monitor the market for signs of improvement. Thank you for your ongoing business and know that we will keep you updated on any further developments.”