Sea Smoke
Thanks to my good friend and Praedictix Weather meteorologist DJ Kayser @dkayserwx for sharing the pictures below who spent some time along Minnesota’s North Shore this weekend. Arctic air combined with Lake Superior water temps in the 30s were perfect conditions for sea smoke to develop.
 

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Weather Outlook Ahead
The weather outlook from AM Monday to AM Wednesday suggests 2 batches of snow sailing south of the Twin Cities through the midweek time frame. There may be a few flurries on Monday across far southern MN, but it looks like a fairly quiet start to the week.
Snowfall Potential
Here’s the snowfall potential through PM Tuesday, which suggests light snow accumulations across far southern MN. Light snow in these areas will likely fall on Monday and could accumulate to 1″ to 2″ in a some areas.
Cold Week Ahead Followed By Gradual Warming
Temperatures through the week ahead will still be quite cold with readings still in the single digits and teens. However, temps will warm in the 20s and 30s as we approach the middle part of the month
 
 

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“Punxsutawney Phil predicted 6 more weeks of winter weather — here’s what spring will actually be like, according to a meteorologist”
“On Friday morning, Punxsutawney Phil popped out in Pennsylvania and delivered his annual prediction for when winter will end: after seeing his shadow, he proclaimed six more frigid weeks of cold. Meanwhile, in New York City, Staten Island Chuck declared an early spring is on the way. Groundhogs, it turns out, aren’t great forecasters. Records show that Punxsutawney Phil actually performs worse than a coin toss when it comes to predicting the end of winter chill. The rodent’s guesses are only accurate about 30% of the time. (It’s probably not a shock that his shadow-checking technique doesn’t actually work.) **Punxsutawney Phil gets the spring forecast right about 30% of the time. That’s worse than flipping a coin. **Real long-range forecasters with the National Weather Service say they’re getting better at predicting long-term trends, though. Their success rate is about 70%. **This coming spring is looking warm for most of the country. 
See more from Business Insider HERE:
 

 

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February Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Here’s NOAA’s February temperatures and precipitation outlook, which suggests that colder and wetter than average conditions will be found across the northern tier of the nation and especially from the Midwest to the Northeast. However, warmer and drier than average conditions look to continue across the southern and western US.


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Snow Depth 2018
The snow depth map across the country for February 4th suggests that 28.5% of the country is covered in snow, mainly across the northern half of the nation. At this time last year, 40.8% of the nation was covered in snow. As of February 4th, the Twin Cities officially had 6″ of snow on the ground at the MSP Airport, but at this time last year, there was only a Trace on the ground. Note also that last year at this time, the Sierra Nevada Range in California had a significantly greater snow pack than what is there now.

Snow Depth 2017
At this time last year, 40.8% of the nation was covered in snow.
 

 

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“Minnesota Sees Deadliest Winter In Years”
“Minnesota has already had five ice-related deaths this winter. The state typically averages three during the whole season. Minnesota is on track to have one of its deadliest winters in years. Five people have died this season after falling through ice. The state typically averages three ice-related deaths over the course of the entire winter. The 2015-2016 winter had zero ice-related deaths, while the 2016-2017 winter had two. The last time Minnesota saw ice-related deaths in the double digits was in the 2002-2003 winter, when the state had 10 fatalities. The most recent death this year happened in northern Minnesota where a women drowned after riding an ATV on Rice Lake. Minnesota Department of Natural Resources conservation officer Hannah Mishler has already responded to multiple ice rescue calls. “Ice, especially snow covered ice, is extremely deceptive. You can’t see dangerous cracks or the thickness of the ice under the snow,” Mishler said in a statement.”
See more from Patch HERE:
 

 

 

Ice Safety!!
Before you go testing the ice on area lakes and ponds, remember that “ICE IS NEVER 100% SAFE!” So when is ice safe? Here is an excerpt from the MN DNR regarding ice safety:
“There really is no sure answer. You can’t judge the strength of ice just by its appearance, age, thickness, temperature, or whether or not the ice is covered with snow. Strength is based on all these factors — plus the depth of water under the ice, size of the water body, water chemistry and currents, the distribution of the load on the ice, and local climatic conditions.”
 

 

 

General Ice Thickness Guidelines

Here are some general ice thickness guidelines from the MN DNR:
For new, clear ice ONLY:

Under 4″ – STAY OFF
4″ – Ice fishing or other activities on foot
5″ – 7″ – Snowmobile or ATV
8″ – 12″ – Car or small pickup
12″ – 15″ – Medium truck

Many factors other than thickness can cause ice to be unsafe.
White ice or “snow ice” is only about half as strong as new clear ice. Double the above thickness guidelines when traveling on white ice.

See more from the MN DNR HERE:

 

 

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Temperature Anomaly on Sunday
The image below shows the temperature anomaly across North America from Sunday which showed well below average temperatures across much of Canada. However, note that the western and southwestern US was still WELL above average with temps running +10F to almost +20F above average.
 
Temperature Trend
Here’s the 850mb temperature anomaly from AM Monday to PM Wednesday which suggests mild colder than average temperatures funneling south of the International border into the Central US. Meanwhile, warmer than average temperatures look to continue across much of the Western half of the country.
 

 

High Temps Monday

High temps across the country on Monday will be quite chilly again for much of the Midwest again with readings -10s to -20F below average. However, folks across the Western US will be well above average with temps running +10F to +20F above average.

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Weather Outlook Ahead
Weather conditions through Tuesday look fairly active across much of the country as a developing storm system brings areas of heavy rain, ice and snow to the Central US through the early week time frame.
7 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA’s WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavy precipitation continuing in the Northwest with several inches of precipitaiton from the Central and Northern Rockies to the northern Cascades. There will also be another batch of heavy precipitation in the Lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast States through next weekend. There will also be areas of heavy precipitation across parts of the Northeast. Unfortunately, much of California and the Southwest will stay dry over the next 7 days.

Snowfall Potential Ahead

The snowfall potential through midweek suggests areas of heavy snow falling across parts of the central and northern rockies along with the northern Cascades. There will also be areas of heavier snow across parts of the Central US and into the Northeast.
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Grinding Through A Frigid Start to February
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

OK, be honest. As a Minnesotan, raise your hand if you told any of your visiting friends that yesterday’s cold weather was a typical winter day here in the “Bold North”? I don’t know about you, but I enjoyed the Arctic air a lot more while staring at it inside through a window.

Super Bowl Sunday’s weather was easily THE coldest on record in its 52 year history. The high temperature? Just above zero degrees! Feels like temps stayed in the teens and twenties below zero, which made for an extremely painful “LII” celebration. Sub-zero sunshine is a sensation. Equivalent to getting a cavity filled while staring into the bright light from a dentist chair… Think about it!

Minnesota really is the Super Bowl of weather. From blizzards to tornadoes and just shy of hurricanes, we get it all. Come visit in July when our heat index surges into the triple digits. Really!

It’ll be another chilly week with highs in the teens and sub-zero wind chills. Light snow sails across far southern MN twice this week. We finally thaw out mid-Feb.
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Extended Forecast

MONDAY: Sub-zero start. Snow develops late across far southern MN. Winds: WNW 5. High: 16.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and cold. Winds: NW 5. Low: -6. (Feels like: -15F to -20F)

TUESDAY: Cold sun. Light snow overnight. Winds: SSW 5-10 High: 8.

WEDNESDAY: Slightly warmer. Yea, still cold. Winds: WNW 5. Wake-up: 2. High: 17.

THURSDAY: Clouds thicken. Snow late in southern MN. Winds: NNE 5. Wake-up: -1. High: 12.

FRIDAY: Chance of light snow, mainly south. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 1. High: 13.

SATURDAY: Light snow. Light snow accumulations? Winds: NNE 5-15. Wake-up: -2. High: 14.

SUNDAY: Brighter blue sky. Winds: WNW 5-10. Wake-up: 4. High: 16.
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This Day in Weather History
February 5th

1834: Unseasonably mild temperatures are felt at Ft. Snelling with a high of 51.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
February 5th

Average High: 26F (Record: 51F set in 2005)
Average Low: 10F (Record: -27F set in 1979)

Record Rainfall: 0.52″ set in 1908
Record Snowfall: 7.5″ set in 1908
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
February 5th

Sunrise: 7:27am
Sunset: 5:27pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 59 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 42 seconds
Daylight GAINED since winter solstice (December 21st): 1 Hour 13 Minutes
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Moon Phase for February 5th at Midnight
1.4 Days Before First Quarter Moon

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 Temp Outlook For Monday

Temps on Monday will be quite a bit cold across much of the region with temps running nearly -10F to -20F below average. With that said, wind chill values will still be VERY cold and will still be in the teens below zero near the Red River Valley around midday.
 
 

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8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

Here’s the temperature outlook as we head into the 2nd week of February, which suggests that warmer than average temperatures moving in across much of the Upper Midwest. It does appear that we may finally start easing out of the deep freeze by mid-month!

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

As we head into the 2nd week of February, warmer than average temperatures will be in place across much of the Western US and into the Upper Midwest. However, colder than average temperatures will be in place across the Southern US.

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“J.J. Watt wins Walter Payton Man of Year Award for hurricane relief efforts”
“Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt, who raised more than $37 million in just 19 days for those affected by Hurricane Harvey, won the 2017 Walter Payton Man of the Year Award on Saturday night. Watt was announced as the winner of the award, given to an NFL player who has “a significant positive impact on his community,” at the NFL Honors event in Minneapolis, where Super Bowl LII will be played Sunday. “I’ve been fortunate to be on this stage and to win Defensive Player of the Year awards, but everything that you do on the field pales in comparison to what you do off the field,” Watt said. “And at the end of my life, if I’m remembered as a football player and a good football player and that’s all I’m remembered for, then I did a poor job in my life. When I go to my grave I want to be remembered as a guy who helped people out and who tried to do as much as he could off the field to be the best man he could be. I’m trying to make my family proud and my fans proud, and go out there and just be the best person I can be and leave the world a little bit better.”
See more from ESPN HERE:
 

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“12,800 YEARS AGO, EARTH WAS STRUCK BY A DISINTEGRATING COMET, SETTING OFF GLOBAL FIRESTORMS”
“According to modern theories of geological evolution, the last major ice age (known as the Pliocene-Quaternary glaciation) began about 2.58 million years ago during the late Pliocene Epoch. Since then, the world has experienced several glacial and interglacial periods, and has been in an inter-glacial period (where the ice sheets have been retreating) ever since the last glacial period ended about 10,000 years ago. According to new research, this trend experienced a bit of a hiccup during the late Paleolithic era. It was at this time – roughly 12,800 years ago, according to a new studyfrom the University of Kansas – that a comet struck our planet and triggered massive wildfires. This impact also triggered a short glacial period that temporarily reversed the previous period of warming, which had a drastic affect on wildlife and human development. The study in question, “Extraordinary Biomass-Burning Episode and Impact Winter Triggered by the Younger Dryas Cosmic Impact ~12,800 Years Ago”, was so large that it was divided into two parts. Part I. Ice Cores and Glaciers; and Part II. Lake, Marine, and Terrestrial Sediments, were both recently published by The Journal of Geography, part of the the University of Chicago Press’ series of scientific publications.”
See more from Universe Today HERE:
 

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“Arizona road hazard has surprising source”
“Blowing dust is one of Arizona’s deadliest weather-related hazards. Between 1955 and 2011, brownout conditions created by dust storms caused more than 1,500 motor vehicle accidents across the state, resulting in 157 fatalities and more than 1,300 injuries, according to a 2016 NOAA Technical Memorandum. Most of these casualties occurred along interstate highways in the southern half of the state, where the combination of arid climate, high speed limits and heavy traffic makes drivers more susceptible to rapid reductions in visibility caused by dust storms. The state’s deadliest corridor is a 145-kilometer-long stretch of Interstate 10 between Phoenix and Tucson, where 176 dust-related accidents took place between 1955 and 2011, including a severe multicar crash near Casa Grande in 1970 that killed 12 people. Along another dangerous stretch of I-10 between Tucson and the New Mexico border, brownouts occur so frequently that state officials have asked landowners to stabilize denuded desert in recent years by watering cleared lands and spraying disturbed soils with a binding chemical. The success of such mitigation measures, however, depends on treating the actual sources of the dust. Abandoned farmland along the interstate is typically blamed as the main source, but there has been little research done — particularly by people with geomorphic or soil science expertise — to confirm this, says Eric McDonald, a geomorphologist at the Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nev.”
See more from Earth Magazine HERE:

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“Design call for ‘solar sentinel’ mission”
“UK scientists and engineers will play a leading role in developing a satellite that can warn if Earth is about to be hit by damaging solar storms. The European Space Agency has requested studies be undertaken to design the mission that would launch in the 2020s. Explosive eruptions from the Sun can lead to widespread disruption on our planet – degrading communications, even knocking over power grids. The satellite’s observations would increase the time available to prepare. Esa has a working name for the new mission – “Lagrange”, which reflects the position the satellite would take up in space. The plan is to go to a gravitational “sweetspot” just behind the Earth in its orbit around the Sun known as “Lagrangian Point 5”. Spacecraft that are sited there do not have to use so much fuel to maintain station – but there is an even bigger operational rationale to use this location: it is the perfect spot to see that part of the Sun which is about to rotate into view of the Earth.”
See more from BBC HERE:
 

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“Why Cape Town Is Running Out of Water, and Who’s Next”
“The South African city plans to shut off the taps to 4 million people. But it’s just one of many cities around the world facing a future with too little water. By late spring, four million people in the city of Cape Town—one of Africa’s most affluent metropolises—may have to stand in line surrounded by armed guards to collect rations of the region’s most precious commodity: drinking water. Population growth and a record drought, perhaps exacerbated by climate change, is sparking one of the world’s most dramatic urban water crises, as South African leaders warn that residents are increasingly likely to face “Day Zero.” That’s the day, now projected for mid-April, when the city says it will be forced to shut off taps to homes and businesses because reservoirs have gotten perilously low—a possibility officials now consider almost inevitable. “The question that dominates my waking hours now is: When Day Zero arrives, how do we make water accessible and prevent anarchy?” says Helen Zille, former Cape Town mayor and the current premier of South Africa’s Western Cape province, in a guest newspaper column published last week.”
See more from NatGeo HERE:
 

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“Why You (Probably) Shouldn’t Worry About Earth’s Magnetic Poles Flipping”
“Earth’s magnetic poles, whatever they’re doing, are not going to spark chaos and kill us all — a scenario making the rounds online right now. According to the Australian news site news.com.au, a magnetic flip would not only cause massive blackouts, “even flushing the toilet could become impossible.” As reported by Undark, Daniel Baker, the director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado, Boulder, is suggesting a reversal would render parts of the planet uninhabitable (though Baker is not directly quoted saying this).”
See more from Live Science HERE:
 

 

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“More Evidence That West Antarctica’s Glaciers Are in Terrible Shape”
“West Antarctica’s glaciers are the weakest link in the icy armor that surrounds the massive southern ice sheet. A study published in the Annals of Glaciology last month adds to the pile of crap news about how these glaciers, which extend out over water that’s being warmed by climate change, are susceptible to melting that could screw the world’s coasts. Scientists used a new technique to see how far water is intruding under West Antarctica’s Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, two of the biggest and most vulnerable glaciers on Earth. They found signs that ocean water is pushing miles deeper under the ice than we realized in near a location where both glaciers meet, raising some uncomfortable prospects about how their futures could be intertwined.”
See more from Earther HERE:
 

 

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“Meteorites Brought Water To Earth During the First Two Million Years”
“A new study of a rare basaltic meteorites called angrites suggests that volatiles, which are elements and molecules with relatively low boiling points such as water, could have been brought to our planet by meteorites during the first two million years of the Solar System. Since elements and molecules such as water and carbon are essential ingredients to life on Earth, researchers are keen to know when they arrived on our planet. “We’re looking at as many meteorite parent bodies as possible right now to figure out where they were in the early Solar System and how much water they had,” says Adam Sarafian, a recent doctoral graduate in the department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “We’re trying to build a map of the very early inner Solar System. Where was the water, where was it going and where did it come from?”
See more from Space HERE:
 

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“The Penguin and the Egg”
“This image of distant interacting galaxies, known collectively as Arp 142, bears an uncanny resemblance to a penguin guarding an egg. Data from NASA’s Spitzer and Hubble space telescopes have been combined to show these dramatic galaxies in light that spans the visible and infrared parts of the spectrum. This dramatic pairing shows two galaxies that couldn’t look more different as their mutual gravitational attraction slowly drags them closer together. The “penguin” part of the pair, NGC 2336, was probably once a relatively normal-looking spiral galaxy, flattened like a pancake with smoothly symmetric spiral arms. Rich with newly-formed hot stars, seen in visible light from Hubble as bluish filaments, its shape has now been twisted and distorted as it responds to the gravitational tugs of its neighbor. Strands of gas mixed with dust stand out as red filaments detected at longer wavelengths of infrared light seen by Spitzer.”
See more from NASA HERE:
 

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