1942: A line of thunderstorms raced across Minnesota at 70 mph, destroying 651 barns in a 30 mile wide, 180 mile long path.
1931: Summer still had its grip on Minnesota with 111 degrees at Beardsley.
1931: The daytime high in St. Cloud was 96 degrees.
1900: The soggy remains of the Galveston Hurricane brings 6.65 inches of rain to St. Paul over two days.
1807: Thick smoky weather noted at Pembina.
Instant October
I’m afraid to check the news. Between ISIS, Ebola and Ray Rice it’s no wonder the heart monitor on my new Apple Watch sounds like a bongo drum on fast-forward.
In a perfect world (it ain’t) the weather report would be an antidote to all the darkness lurking out there. At least we can do something about the weather, prepare ourselves for whatever comes next.
At the risk of burying the lead, this premature shot of October does not mean that another harsh winter is imminent. A stubborn polar vortex in early 2014 resulted in the most extreme winter in 30 years for Minnesota. The odds of an identically-brutal winter, statistically, are small.
That said, the same upper level feature (hot, dry ridge of high pressure in the west – frequent shots of Canadian air east of the Rockies) has been remarkably persistent, and sweatshirt weather spills over into Saturday.
The sun peeks out today; a reinforcing front sparks more rain showers Friday. A light frost can’t be ruled out Saturday morning outside the Twin Cities metro but 60s return next week. Plenty of September left to go.
Tell that to residents of Grand Marais, where it snowed yesterday.
Um, maybe it’s time to tune in CNN, just to catch my breath.
9 AM Wednesday Observations. I did a triple-take when I checked in yesterday morning, with mixed rain and snow reported at Grand Marais, a surface temperature of 37F with winds gusting to 35 mph. Ouch.
No Named Storms First Times Since 1992 at Hurricane Peak. September 10 is the day when a hurricane is most likely, statistically, to come ashore over the USA. Not this year. Here’s the intro to a story at Bloomberg: “The statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season has arrived and for the first time since 1992 there isn’t a named storm in the basin. While forecasters are watching a pair of potential systems, neither is likely to grow into a tropical storm by the end of today. So far, four storms have gotten names in the Atlantic this year. In records going back to 1851, Sept. 10 is the day when the odds are greatest there will be at least one tropical storm or hurricane somewhere in the Atlantic. Still, it would be a mistake for everyone to let their guard down, said Gerry Bell, lead hurricane forecaster for the U.S. Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland…”
Peak of Hurricane Season Comes Quietly This Year. Brian McNoldy has a good summary of what drives peak hurricane season and why it’s been so quiet so far in 2014; here’s an excerpt from his blog: “Although the Atlantic is fairly calm today, if you average activity over the whole 163 years of records, September 9 is actually the climatological peak! There are numerous ways to define “activity” of course, and there are numerous time periods one could use to create the average. But for this claim, I’m using a standard metric called Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), and the full 1851-2013 period…”
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing and cool. Low: 43
FRIDAY: Raw with clouds, few showers. High: 54
SATURDAY: Slight frost risk outside the metro early. Bright sun. Wake-up: 36. High: near 60
SUNDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, pleasant. Wake-up: 42. High: 63
MONDAY: Some sun, still cooler than average. Wake-up: 44. High: 59
TUESDAY: Bright sunshine, very nice. Wake-up: 40. High: 64
WEDNESDAY: Sunny intervals, a bit milder. Wake-up: 48. High: 66
Climate Stories….
Here’s How Global Warming Is Already Worsening Extreme Deluges In The U.S. ThinkProgress has the story which all comes down to basic physics. By increasing water and air temperatures we are pumping more water vapor into the atmosphere, loading the dice in favor of more extreme rain (and snow) events; here’s an excerpt: “One of the most robust scientific findings is the direct connection between global warming and more extreme deluges. Scientists have observed a sharp jump in monster one- and two-day rainstorms in this country. The 2014 National Climate Assessment (NCA), which is the definitive statement of current and future U.S. climate impacts, notes, “The mechanism driving these changes is well understood.” The congressionally-mandated report by 300 leading climate scientists and experts, which was reviewed by the National Academy of Sciences, explains: Warmer air can contain more water vapor than cooler air. Global analyses show that the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere has in fact increased due to human-caused warming…. This extra moisture is available to storm systems, resulting in heavier rainfalls…”
Graphic credit above: “Decadal index of two-day precipitation totals that are exceeded on average only once in a 5-year period. Changes are compared to the period 1901-1960. As data show, such once-in-five-year events have become much more common (via NCA.)”
Houston Professor Says South Most Heavily-Affected by Climate Change Disasters. Here’s an excerpt of a story at The Houston Chronicle that caught my eye: “…Robert Bullard, dean of the Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs at Texas Southern University, said disasters in the South have outnumbered those in other regions by a ratio of almost 4-to-1 in the decade between 2000 and 2010. He cited an article published in 2011 in the online journal of the American Meteorological Society. In the 32-year period between 1980 and 2012, the southeastern United States had more billion-dollar disasters than the rest of the country combined, Bullard stated in an opinion piece on OpEdNews.com…”
Map credit: NOAA NCDC.
97%, 97 Hours, 97 Climate Scientists. There may not be a consensus among politicians or a broad sweep of Americans, but there is a consensus that climate change is not only real, but underway, among scientists. Here’s an excerpt from Slate: “Global warming is real. Climate change is occurring faster than any time in recorded history. Humans dumping carbon dioxide into the air is to blame. In the scientific community, those statements are not controversial at all. A solid 97% of climate scientists doing active research into the matter agree on them. Politically, though, it’s a different story. Only about half the American public understand global warming is man-made, and only a fraction of them know that there is overwhelming scientific consensus on it…”
Cartoon credit above: The Consensus Project.
Scientists Say Large Wildfires Are Likely Here to Stay. Jefferson Public Radio has the article; here’s a clip: “Megafires could be the new normal if climate models are on target. John Abatzoglou, an associate professor in the Department of Geography at the University of Idaho, presented findings from a review of 20 different climate models at the Pacific Northwest Climate Science Conference, held at the University of Washington this week. The models looked at weekly temperature and wildfire data over time. “The models all tend to show increases in the probability of very large fires and an extension of the window over which these fires might be expected to occur,” Abatzoglou said…”
Photo credit above: “Scientists at the Pacific Northwest Climate Science Conference in Seattle said modeling suggests large wildfires are increasingly likely to occur going forward.” Flickr/Washington DNR.
Climate Change Affecting Water Supply. Stewardship and Creation Care resonate with people of many faiths, as explained in this Op-Ed at The Californian; here’s an excerpt: “…Water has deep resonance with Christians. That includes the spiritual “living water” of Christ as well as the actual stuff, which many missionary travelers help secure through well-digging in less developed countries. Fish likewise feature in the Bible – and in today’s climate analyses. Warmer ocean waters, in tandem with overfishing and seawater acidification, threaten this important source of food. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that the changes will likely “increase the vulnerability of human societies, by affecting income, employment and food security.” When the weather goes wild, people die...”
Prophetic Visions Can Rouse Politicians from Complacency to Save the Planet. Here’s an excerpt of a Guardian Op-Ed that caught my eye: “…The moral case for action is clear. It is those suffering the most who carry the least historic responsibility for our situation. The wealthier industrialised nations have the power to act and secure a safe world for today’s poorest and tomorrow’s children. Christian Aid is soon to publish a report by Susan Durber examining the links between theology and climate change, in which it will be made very plain that the call for climate justice is something that echoes clearly the challenges found in the biblical prophets to a complacent and short-sighted society. As Durber says: “Prophets are sometimes unpopular and can be ridiculed by those who have much to lose if people really were to open their eyes. But they are those who consistently, and without fear, speak what they believe to be the truth…”
Greenhouse Gas Leves Rising At Fastest Rate Since 1984. Here’s an excerpt from an update by The BBC: “…About half of all emissions are taken up by the seas, trees and living things. According to the bulletin, the globally averaged amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached 396 parts per million (ppm) in 2013, an increase of almost 3ppm over the previous year. “The Greenhouse Gas Bulletin shows that, far from falling, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere actually increased last year at the fastest rate for nearly 30 years,” said Michel Jarraud, secretary general of the WMO…”
Photo credit above: “Concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere rose rapidly in 2013.” Source: SPL.
Climate Change Will Disrupt Half of North America’s Bird Species, Study Says. Here’s an excerpt from a sobering article at The New York Times: “…Those are some of the grim prospects outlined in a report released on Monday by the National Audubon Society, which found that climate change is likely to so alter the bird population of North America that about half of the approximately 650 species will be driven to smaller spaces or forced to find new places to live, feed and breed over the next 65 years. If they do not — and for several dozen it will be very difficult — they could become extinct...”