Probably Just a Little Snow – But a Lot of Cold
Yes, the planet is warming, but that doesn’t mean we won’t have winter. If Canada ever runs out of cold fronts; if the snows and blustery days never come, the planet will have much bigger problems.
A little perspective is in order: around this time in 1983 Mora saw a record -52 F. Stillwater experienced -39 F. Air temperature. Serious – pioneer cold. This next cold wave probably won’t be in that league.
A few models show nighttime lows in the -15 to -20F range by the middle of next week, but I doubt we’ll be setting any records.
What looks potentially more impressive is the sheer duration of this cold wave. In spite of a few blips into the teens and possibly 20s, numbing cold spills over into at least the first week of January, maybe longer. A rerun of the “Polar Vortex” winter 4 years ago, when a blocking pattern caused bitter air to stall, month after month? I doubt it, but stay tuned.
The approach of polar air sets off a coating to an inch or two Thursday into Friday. No panic required. A Christmas Day clipper may squeeze out more powder, with highs stuck in single digits.
Keep your chimney nice and toasty for Santa’s arrival. He’ll need to thaw out a bit.
Probably a Fizzle. I was a little dumbfounded by some of the rumors a couple days ago. “A foot of snow!” some touted, based on early model guidance. It rarely works out that way, and giving inch amounts more than 36 hours before the onset of snow is fraught with peril. I’ve done it too – but it’s usually a bad idea. The 12km NAM (above) shows a band of 1-2″ setting up over the metro Thursday; maybe a few 3″ amounts over the south metro. Map: Tropicaltidbits.com.
Model Spread. Any way you slice it Thursday’s snowfall potential is a bust – the storm just not getting its act together (and little or no moisture from the Gulf of Mexico reaching Minnesota). The result will be something between a nuisance and plowable event. Meteogram for the Twin Cities: Iowa State.
WILDFIRES: From Climate Nexus Hot News: “Thomas Fire on course to become California’s largest-ever wildfire (CNN), California wildfire becomes state’s third largest in history (The Hill), Thomas Fire 45 percent contained, destroys Montecito homes (ABC7, LA Times $, NPR), smoke from wildfires may be surprisingly deadly, scientists report (Washington Post $), firefighters mourn one of their own as destructive Thomas Fire rages on (CBS), Santa Ana winds help clear the smoke from the Thomas fire, but health risks remain (LA Times $), after California’s most destructive fire season, a debate over where to rebuild homes (LA Times $), as California fires blaze, homeowners fear losing insurance.” (Reuters)
Record 129 Million Dead Trees in California. Here’s the press release from USDA and CAL FIRE.
New Major Evidence That Fracking Harms Human Health. The Atlantic reports: “Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, may pose a significant—but very local—harm to human health, a new study finds. Mothers who live very close to a fracking well are more likely to give birth to a less healthy child with a low birth weight—and low birth weight can lead to poorer health throughout a person’s life. The research, published Wednesday in Science Advances, is the largest study ever conducted on fracking’s health effects. “I think this is the most convincing evidence that fracking has a causal effect on local residents,” said Janet Currie, an economist at Princeton University and one of the authors of the study…”
Photo credit: “A fracking well in Colorado.” Jim Urquhart / Reuters.
Just 20% of E-Waste is Being Recycled. Every year the world tosses a million tons worth of chargers alone. Ars Technica has the story: “…Apart from a story here and there about a new e-waste recycling project, it’s hard to get an idea of just how much e-waste is getting tossed around the world. A new report from the United Nations’ International Telecommunication Union helps paint a picture by providing some global statistics. Altogether, the report estimates that nearly 45 million tons of electronics were thrown out in 2016—and only about 20 percent of it is known to have been recycled. The report puts the value of the raw materials in that 45 million tons of e-waste at about $55 billion ($9 billion from smartphones alone), but most of that waste isn’t being recovered...”
Photo credit: Olcese Services.
What Could Possibly Go Wrong in 2018? Let me count the ways. Here’s an excerpt from a partial list at pressconnects.com: “…Sooner or later, someone is going to figure out how to bring large sectors of the American grid down — or, I should say, someone who already knows how is going to decide that they want to do so. 2018 just might be the year. People are talking about making the electrical grid more resilient. That means not only making it more reliable, so that it’s less likely to fail, but also better at putting itself back together if pieces of it collapse. I think that this sort of thing deserves at least as much attention as cyberdefense efforts designed to frustrate hackers. All sorts of things besides hackers could bring down the grid: A massive solar flare, an EMP attack, a software “bug” rather than a hack. The better the grid is at recovering, the better it will be if any of them happen...”
File photo: Gerald Herbert, AP.
The Problem With Muzak. Is Spotify the devil? Not sure (I too have a subscription) but an analysis at The Baffler made me stop and think: “…But Spotify’s worth is more ephemeral. Its value—what makes it addictive for listeners, a necessity for artists, and a worthwhile investment for venture capitalists—lies in its algorithmic music discovery “products” and its ability to make the entire music industry conform to the new standards it sets. This means one thing: playlists are king, and particularly the ones curated by Spotify itself. An unprecedented amount of data (“skip rates” and “completion rates” determine whether a song survives) and “human-machine technology” are deployed to quantify your tastes. This is what lies behind the “magic” of Spotify...”
Vatican Using Milk to Paint Its Buildings. CNN Style reports: “The Belvedere Palace, which dates back to 1484 and houses precious art of the Vatican Museums, is currently being re-painted with milk. It’s an ancient recipe that has proven more lasting than any modern synthetic paints: “We’re not nostalgic for the past,” said the Vatican’s chief architect, Vitale Zanchettin. “The point is that we think these solutions age better. They are tried and tested.” In line with Pope Francis’ emphasis on ecology, the milk itself comes from the Pope’s cows, raised at the papal summer residence of Castel Gandolfo, just outside of Rome. It is mixed with slaked lime and natural pigments, in this case, the original cream color used in the 1500s and hand-patted onto the walls with a centuries-old technique…”
Photo credit: “The small production of milk is branded “Ville Pontificie.” Credit: CNN.
UFO Update. From Muck Rack Daily: “Wow, thus, uh, is something,” tweets Chris Krewson. He’s referring to The Pentagon’s Secret Search for UFOs, by Bryan Bender for POLITICO Magazine. “2017 — when the Pentagon acknowledging a secret UFO program seems like one of the *least* weird stories of the year,” tweets Dan Diamond. Helene Cooper, Ralph Blumenthal and Leslie Kean of The New York Times also report on the story (with video), in Glowing Auras and ‘Black Money’: The Pentagon’s Mysterious U.F.O. Program. Tweets Samantha Storey, “I think the @nytimes just discovered proof of UFO’s, but because this year has been insane we’re all ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.” “Share this before they reveal themselves,” says Patrick LaForge. “This is not a great time for aliens to meet us,” notes Liam Stack.”
Flu Season Is Here Early. Why Didn’t We See It Coming? WIRED has the troubling story: “If you’ve been putting off your flu shot until the season really gets going, wait no longer. It’s already here—and it’s looking like it’s going to be a doozy. Influenza viruses quietly circulate year-round in the US, but every winter they go big, triggering a seasonal epidemic of sniffles, sweats, and sore throats. And this year it’s come earlier than usual, just in time for a potential peak over the holidays. Normally, infections start to increase around the beginning of January, peak in February, and then come down by the end of March. But according to data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday, the flu is already widespread in 12 states, including California and New York. “We’re seeing flu activity increasing around us,” says Brendan Flannery, an epidemiologist in the CDC’s influenza division...”
HMS Queen Elizabeth: Leak Found on New Aircraft Carrier. The BBC reports: “The UK’s new aircraft carrier, HMS Queen Elizabeth, is leaking because of a faulty seal. The Royal Navy’s future flagship, which was commissioned by the Queen earlier this month in Portsmouth, has a problem with one of its propeller shafts. The fault on the £3.1bn carrier was first identified during sea trials. A Royal Navy spokesman said the ship was scheduled for repair and the fault did not prevent it from sailing again early in the new year. According to the Sun newspaper, HMS Queen Elizabeth has been taking on up to 200 litres of sea water every hour because of the fault. BBC defence correspondent Jonathan Beale said the problem was “highly embarrassing” for the Royal Navy and just one of a number of snags still to be rectified...”
38 F. maximum temperature yesterday in the Twin Cities.
26 F. average high on December 19.
26 F. high on December 19, 2016.
December 20, 1989: Minnesotans are hard pressed to find snow cover across most of the state. Only good places to cross country ski are at Grand Marais and along the Gunflint Trail.
WEDNESDAY: Coating of flurries possible. Winds: E 5-10. High: 25
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Flurries and very light snow – slick spots. Low: 22
THURSDAY: Light snow. Coating to an inch or 2 possible. Winds: N 8-13. High: 29
FRIDAY: Gray with flurries, not Nanook yet. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 19. High: 26
SATURDAY: Lot’s of clouds. Cold wind, feels like single digits. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 10. High: 19
CHRISTMAS EVE: More flurries. White Christmas likely. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 2. High: 13
CHRISTMAS DAY: Christmas Clipper possible. Another 1-2″ fluff? Winds: NW 10-20+. Wake-up: 0. High: 15
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, feels like -15F. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: -7. High: 5
Climate Stories….
Climate Change Hits Winter Olympic Preparation. The Denver Post has the story: “…Another subtle but telltale indicator of climate change’s disruptive impact on winter sports: Many athletes — here 5,000 miles away from the Rockies and 3,500 miles from the Green Mountains of New England — had the letters “USA” emblazoned on their jackets. Americans once had little need to swap continents to guarantee offseason access to snow. But warming is forcing athletes to hunt farther from home for wintry conditions, particularly just months away from an Olympics. “Without the snow and the cold in the places in the States where it’s normally cold, we have to travel over here and find a place on a glacier to get a couple of jumps off,” said Jon Lillis, world champion in aerials skiing. “Something that terrifies every winter athlete daily is the fact that the conditions are not as good as they used to be. You see videos of people skiing on glaciers back in the ’80s and ’70s, and half of that glacier doesn’t even exist anymore…”
Photo credit: John Leicester, The Associated Press. “This photo taken from a 4K video and dated Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2017 shows a skier performing a jump during training on the glacier above Saas-Fee, Switzerland. The glacier attracted skiers and snowboard athletes from an array of nations, who came hunting for snow on which to train early in the season ahead of the 2018 Pyeongchang Olympics.”
NASA and NOAA Are Still Talking About Climate Change. That’s Notable. The Washington Post takes a look at the policy disconnect: “…Meanwhile, in an odd bit of cognitive dissonance, scientists at NASA and NOAA have been able to carry on with their climate research — and to talk about it freely and publicly, even on government social media accounts. “Nobody has tried to interfere with anything we’re doing. Nobody has made any comments on it,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and a prolific tweeter about climate change. “Nobody has told us to stop doing it, so we’re just going to continue on doing the best science we can … and communicate those results to as wide an audience of interested people as we can.” NASA employs more than 18,000 people across its nine centers and seven test and research facilities. NOAA employs another 12,000, more than half of whom are scientists and engineers “studying and monitoring our evolving planet,” according to the agency...”
Image source: Scott Kelly, NASA ISS.
What Minnesota Can Do Now to Regain Leadership on Climate Change. Here’s an excerpt of an Op-Ed at Star Tribune: “This week, 19 of 20 countries with the largest economies in the world met in France to discuss how bold, global action can prevent a climate catastrophe. The United States is the one nation missing from this vital conversation. This comes on the heels of the annual meeting of countries that are signatories to the Paris Climate Agreement. During that global summit last month, Syria joined the Paris Agreement, leaving the U.S. as the only national government in the world not working to prevent disastrous climate change. In contrast, Minnesota was well-represented at the global climate summit in Germany. Delegations from Climate Generation: A Will Steger Legacy, the University of Minnesota, Macalester College and Fresh Energy included legal and policy experts, political leaders, youth and business. We returned with a commitment to ensure that Minnesota is a climate leader. We’re writing today because Minnesota needs to act now with specific policies to ensure that our leadership is more than mere words…”
Climate Changes is Already Wreaking Havoc on our Weather, Scientists Find. TIME has the story; here’s the intro: “The Arctic is melting with no turning back. Climate change increased rainfall during Hurricane Harvey by at least 15%. And several extreme weather events that occurred in 2016 would not have been possible without man-made global warming. These are among the findings being discussed this week at this fall’s meeting of the American Geophysical Union in New Orleans, the largest gathering of Earth scientists in the world. Taken together, the findings show the deepening urgency of the fight against climate change. “Climate change is hurting us without a doubt,” said James Byrne, a professor at the University of Lethbridge who studies climate change, at a press conference...”
Human Influence on Climate Led to Several Major Weather Extremes in 2016. NOAA’s Climate.gov has the story: “Last year’s record global heat, extreme heat over Asia, and unusually warm waters in the Bering Sea would not have been possible without human-caused climate change, according to new research in Explaining Extreme Events in 2016 from a Climate Perspective, a report published today as a special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS). In the six years scientists have been producing this annual report, this is the first time they have found that extreme events could not have happened without human-caused warming of the climate through increases in greenhouse gases. “This report marks a fundamental change,” says Jeff Rosenfeld, editor-in-chief of BAMS. “For years scientists have known humans are changing the risk of some extremes. But finding multiple extreme events that weren’t even possible without human influence makes clear that we’re experiencing new weather, because we’ve made a new climate...”
Map credit: “2016’s new record-high global temperature was among a handful of extreme events that research indicated would not have happened without human-caused warming.”
Climate Change Could Mean Trouble for Skiers, Anglers. Here’s an excerpt from US News: “…Focusing their research in the Merrimack River watershed in south-central New Hampshire, a research team led by scientists at the University of New Hampshire found that snow days could decline by mid-century from 60 to 18, while there could be as many as 45 summer days when temperatures soar above 90 degrees — compared with 10 currently. The study also found that there would be increased risk of flooding at mid-century and a steep decline in stream habitat, resulting in 40 percent becoming uninhabitable for cold-water fish favored by fishermen, like trout. “Starting in about 20 or 25 years from now, that is where we see a noticeable shift. … The implication is that things are really going to change at that point,” Wilfred Wollheim, a co-author on the study and an associate professor in the university’s Department of Natural Resources and the Environment...”
The Year is 2037. This is What Happens When the Hurricane Hits Miami. The Guardian excerpts Jeff Goodell’s book, “The Water Will Come: “After the hurricane hit Miami in 2037, a foot of sand covered the famous bow-tie floor in the lobby of the Fontainebleau Hotel in Miami Beach. A dead manatee floated in the pool where Elvis had once swum. Most of the damage came not from the hurricane’s 175-mile-an-hour winds, but from the twenty-foot storm surge that overwhelmed the low-lying city. In South Beach, historic Art Deco buildings were swept off their foundations. Mansions on Star Island were flooded up to their cut-glass doorknobs. A seventeen-mile stretch of Highway A1A that ran along the famous beaches up to Fort Lauderdale disappeared into the Atlantic. The storm knocked out the wastewater-treatment plant on Virginia Key, forcing the city to dump hundreds of millions of gallons of raw sewage into Biscayne Bay...”
