Anything but average. Cold & Snowless

by | Jan 5, 2018 | Blog | 0 comments

Anything but average. Cold & Snowless
Thursday Sunrise
 
How Low Can You Go?
WOW! Talk about cold… According to the @NWSDuluth, the COOP observer in Embarrass MN recorded a low temperature of -44F Thursday morning. Now that’s cold!
 
Cold Last Week of December
Cold enough for you? According to the Midwest Midwest Regional Climate Center, there were more than 1,100 daily low maximum and minimum temperature records during the last week of December! Here’s an excerpt:
More than 1,100 daily low maximum and minimum temperature records were broken during the bitterly cold period (December 25 – 31). While several hundred records were for minimum temperature, more than 800 were for low maximum temperatures.  More than 500 daily low maximum temperatures were broken through the mornings of January 27 and January 28 combined. Nearly 200 more daily records were broken through the morning of January 1 as well. Record cold temperatures were widespread across the Midwest during the final week of December. The entire region was 10°F or more below normal, with areas in northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin more than 25°F below normal.  Minimum temperatures averaged below-zero across Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and most of Michigan.  Wind chill advisories and warnings were in effect across most of the region during the period as wind chill values in the -20°F to -40°F range were widespread. Two of the coldest mornings were December 27 and December 28, where minimum temperatures of -10°F to -20°F were common across Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and the U.P. of Michigan. The coldest observations during the period were in St. Louis County, MN, with -40°F in Kabetogama and -42°F in Cotton through the morning of December 28, and -45°F in Embarrass through the morning of December 31. New Year’s Eve was also very cold across the region, where temperatures on the morning of January 1 were only above zero in Kentucky, southern Missouri and western Lower Michigan.

See more from Midwest Climate Watch HERE:

 
 
National Temperature Anomaly
The national temperature anomaly map so far this month shows how cold it has been in the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Note that many locations have been nearly -10F (or more) colder than average since the start of 2018… BRR!!!
 

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More Snow in Summerville, SC than the Twin Cities?
Here’s a stat you don’t see too often… Rare shoveable and plowable snow across parts of the Southeastern US earlier this week has now surpassed what the Twin Cities has seen all season! Take Summerville, SC for example, they had 7.3″ of snow on Wednesday, which is more than Twin Cities of 7.2″. Note that the normal snowfall through early January is around 23″.

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Warmer Temps Ahead?
This is a sight for sore eyes! According to extended forecasts from the GEFS (through January 19th) and the ECMWF (through January 18th), high temperatures look to warm into the 10s, 20s and potentially in the 30s! We might actually step out of this deep freeze a bit as we head into the next couple of weeks. Thank goodness!
 
 

 

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Weather Outlook Ahead
Here’s the weather outlook through midday Sunday, which suggests cold and quiet conditions continuing through the end of the week. However, a weak clipper looks to move in on Saturday, which could bring a little light snow to parts of the region. While it doesn’t look like much, this light snow chance will bring ‘warmer’ temps to the region with highs possibly above average by Sunday for the first time in a while!
Snowfall Potential This Weekend
Here’s the snowfall potential through the weekend, which suggets fairly minimal amounts as our next weak clipper rolls through late Saturday. Most locations will likely only see a light coating, but there could be a few areas that see 1″ to 2″, especially near the Arrowhead.
 

 

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Rare Southeastern Snow
Rare shovleable and plowable snow fell across parts of the Southeast earlier this week. This snow caused major headaches for travelers as many roads became snow covered and icy. Thanks to the @gadps for the picture below out of southern Georgia.
Here’s another picture from @COTNews and something you don’t see often out of Tallahasse, FL where accumulating snow fell early Wednesday. According to @NWSTallahassee, they measured 0.1″ of snow at the NWS office at 8:30am Wednesday and it was the first snowfall there in 28 years!
“Bomb” Storm in the Northeast
Here’s a look at the Northeast storm via visible and water vapor satellite from Thursday morning. You may have heard this storm referred to as a “Bomb”. This is actually a meteorological term, which describes the rapid intensification of a storm that drops its central pressure by 24mb within 24 hours. Some of the latest numbers suggest that this storm dropped 59mb in 24 hours, which would likely be a record “bombogenesis” event in the western North Atlantic!

Heavy Snow in the Northeast on Thursday

This was the view from New York City’s Time Square early Thursday as heavy snow was falling. This EarthCam was fun to watch during the day as the snow removal crew there never seemed to stop!
 
Here was another view from Boston College that showed heavy snow falling much of the day as well! The snow removal crews here also seemed to have a hard time keeping up with the heavy snow.
Observed Snowfall
Thanks to @NWSBoston for the picture and information below, which shows how much snow had fallen through 4pm EST around the area. Note that Lincold, MA (located NW of Boston) had nearly 17″, while a number of other locations had nearly 1ft. or more.
Seasonfall Snowfall
Here’s the national snowfall analysis so far this season, which shows that every state in the Lower 48 has seen snow! Interestingly, some loctions across the Southern U.S. have seen more snow that the Twin Cities has seen. You can see the latest even that dropped snow as far south as northern Florida and across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic States.
Snow Depth 2018
The snow depth map across the country for January 4th suggests that 42.3% of the country is covered in snow, mainly across the northern half of the nation. At this time last year, 39.3% of the nation was covered in snow. As of January 4th, the Twin Cities officially had 3″ of snow on the ground at the MSP Airport, but at this time last year, there was only a Trace on the ground.
Snow Depth 2016
At this time last year 39.3% of the nation was covered in snow.
 

 

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“Minnesota Sees Deadliest Winter In Years”
“Minnesota has already had five ice-related deaths this winter. The state typically averages three during the whole season. Minnesota is on track to have one of its deadliest winters in years. Five people have died this season after falling through ice. The state typically averages three ice-related deaths over the course of the entire winter. The 2015-2016 winter had zero ice-related deaths, while the 2016-2017 winter had two. The last time Minnesota saw ice-related deaths in the double digits was in the 2002-2003 winter, when the state had 10 fatalities. The most recent death this year happened in northern Minnesota where a women drowned after riding an ATV on Rice Lake. Minnesota Department of Natural Resources conservation officer Hannah Mishler has already responded to multiple ice rescue calls. “Ice, especially snow covered ice, is extremely deceptive. You can’t see dangerous cracks or the thickness of the ice under the snow,” Mishler said in a statement.”
See more from Patch HERE:
 

 

Ice Safety!!
Before you go testing the ice on area lakes and ponds, remember that “ICE IS NEVER 100% SAFE!” So when is ice safe? Here is an excerpt from the MN DNR regarding ice safety:
“There really is no sure answer. You can’t judge the strength of ice just by its appearance, age, thickness, temperature, or whether or not the ice is covered with snow. Strength is based on all these factors — plus the depth of water under the ice, size of the water body, water chemistry and currents, the distribution of the load on the ice, and local climatic conditions.”
 

 

General Ice Thickness Guidelines
Here are some general ice thickness guidelines from the MN DNR:
For new, clear ice ONLY:

Under 4″ – STAY OFF
4″ – Ice fishing or other activities on foot
5″ – 7″ – Snowmobile or ATV
8″ – 12″ – Car or small pickup
12″ – 15″ – Medium truck

Many factors other than thickness can cause ice to be unsafe.
White ice or “snow ice” is only about half as strong as new clear ice. Double the above thickness guidelines when traveling on white ice.

See more from the MN DNR HERE:

 

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Temperature Anomaly on Thursday
The image below shows the temperature anomaly across North America from Thursday. Note the cooler blues across much of eastern Canada and also across much of the eastern half of the Lower 48, which indicates WELL below average temperatures in these areas. However, intense oranges and reds were in place across the western US, western Canada and Alaska! This is where warmer than average temperatures were located.
 
Arctic Air Moves Out?
Alright… this is starting to look better. The 850mb temp anomaly is suggesting that the significantly colder than average weather that many of us in the eastern two-thirds of the nation dealt with over the last several days will begin to move out. In fact, we’re getting indications of slightly warmer than average temperatures moving in across much of the nation as we head into the early/middle part of next week.
 
 

High Temps Friday

High temperatures on Friday will still be VERY cold across the eastern half of the country with reading runningi -10F to -30F below average! Some across the far north may not even warm above 0F. However, folks in the Western US will be warmer than average.

 
 

 

Weather Outlook Ahead
The storm system that brought heavy snow and wind along the East Coast over the last few days will finally work north of the region on Friday. Lingering cold air and lake effect snow will be found in its wake across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The West Coast will be fairly active with areas of heavy rain along the coast and areas of heavy snow in the mountains.
5 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA’s WPC, the 5 day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavier precipitation continuing across the West Coast though Tuesday. Some locations there could see several inches of liquid, which could lead to flooding. There also appears to be locally heavy rain across the Gulf Coast as we head into the weekend and early next week.

Snowfall Potential Ahead
Areas of heavy snow will wrap up across the New England States on Friday as the major Nor’Easter moves away. Heavy lake effect snow will develop in the wake of the storm as a fresh batch of cold air moves over the Great Lakes. There will also be areas of heavy snow in the high elevations in the Western US.
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National Weather Hazards Ahead…

1.) Much below-normal temperatures for the eastern U.S., Sun, Jan 7.
2.) Freezing rain for parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, Mon, Jan 8.
3.) Heavy snow for the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Mon-Tue, Jan 8-9.
4.) Heavy rain for parts of southern California, Mon-Tue, Jan 8-9.
5.) High winds shifting east from the southwestern U.S. to the central and southern High Plains, Tue-Wed, Jan 9-10.
6.) High winds expanding from the Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula and parts of southwest mainland Alaska, Sun-Tue, Jan 7-9.
7.) High significant wave heights for coastal portions of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, Sun-Tue, Jan 7-9.
8.) A slight risk of heavy precipitation for the Pacific Northwest, Sun-Thu, Jan 14-18.
9.) Severe Drought across the Great Plains, the Southwest, the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, and Hawaii.

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Anything but average. Cold & Snowless
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

The East Coast “Bomb” storm caused quite a ruckus earlier this week with wintry weather stretching from Florida to Maine. Some in the Northeast picked up a foot of snow with reports of thundersnow and near hurricane force wind gusts yesterday. Rare snow even fell across parts of the Southeast on Wednesday; Tallahassee, FL recorded 0.1 inches of snow, which is the first they’ve seen in 28 years! Get this, Summerville, SC saw 7.3 inches of snow, which is more than the Twin Cities has seen all season! Really? Yep!

The MSP Airport has only recorded 7.2 inches of snow this season, which since 1884 is the 26th least amount of snow we’ve had at the start of any snow season.

We enjoy another face-numbing day Friday with sub-zero wind chills values much of the day. A light snow chance arrives late Saturday with minimal snow accumulations by AM Sunday. Temps FINALLY look to warm back to near average by Sunday. ‘Warmer’ temps may actually help our snowfall potential. There’s a chance of mucky commutes late next week, but don’t hold your breath.
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Extended Forecast

FRIDAY: Arctic sunshine. Winds: NNE 5. Wake-up: -8. High: 3.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and cold. Winds: Calm. Low: -11.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Light snow overnight. Winds: SSE 5-10. High: 12.

SUNDAY: Warmer. AM flurries, peeks of PM sunshine. Winds: WNW 5-10. Wake-up: 7. High: 27.

MONDAY: Feels better. Not as nanook. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 15. High: 26

TUESDAY: Average for January. Clouds thicken. Winds: S 5-10.. Wake-up: 12. High: 24.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds thicken. Chance of snow late. Winds: SSW 5-10. Wake-up: 10. High: 27.

THURSDAY: Snow. Cold wind develops. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 8. High: 20.
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This Day in Weather History
January 5th

2012: Record warmth is felt across the state. Many locations in western Minnesota soared over 50 degrees, with temperatures reaching the 60s at Marshall, Canby, and Madison. This was the first record of any 60 degree temperatures in Minnesota during the first week of January.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
January 5th

Average High: 24F (Record: 47F set in 1885)
Average Low: 8F (Record: -28F set in 1924)

Record Rainfall: 0.63″ set in 1932
Record Snowfall: 4.7″ set in 1994
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
January 5th

Sunrise: 7:51am
Sunset: 4:46pm

Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours 55 mins

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 8 seconds
Daylight GAINED since winter solstice (December 21st): 9 minute
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Moon Phase for January 5th at Midnight
2.6 Days Before Last Quarter Moon

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Weather Outlook For Friday

High temps on Friday will still be quite cold across much of the region with readings still nearly -10F to -20F below average! The good news is that Friday looks like the last really cold day before we warm up heading into the weekend.

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8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

Here’s the temperature outlook as we head into the 3rd week of January, which suggests colder than average temperatures may linger across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. However, warmer than average temperatures will move in across the High Plains.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

Here’s the extended temperature outlook from January 13th to January 17th, which suggests colder than average temperatures lingering across parts of the Central US from the Great Lakes to the Southern US. Warmer than average temperatures will start to make a return across much of the Western US during the middle part of the month.

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“Does this cold wave prove the globe is not warming?”

“What had been a warmer than normal December, with the first 22 days averaging nearly 4.8 degrees above normal, was transformed to slightly below normal by a dramatic cold wave to end the month. Over the last week of December we averaged about 11 degrees below normal. This sudden change, though not unprecedented, was foreseen in various medium-range forecasts made before Christmas. But it has captured the nation’s attention as 2017 draws to a close. Unfortunately, some of that attention may contribute to misunderstanding — motivated by President Trump’s recent statement suggesting such a cold wave provides evidence that his administration’s denial of climate change has been vindicated. Defense of the reality of global warming is particularly challenged by the cherry-picking skeptic during winter, as any period of below-average temperatures, and every winter will have some, is construed as evidence to the contrary.”

See more from CIMSS The WX Guys HERE:

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“Weather satellite and scientists may face funding drought despite devastating hurricanes”
“In November, the first government satellite in the Joint Polar Satellite System series, JPSS-1, an effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), was successfully launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. And it began its orbit just in time. A month later, wildfires ravaged southern California and arctic cold beset the Midwest and East Coast just as the JPSS-1 instruments were starting to capture imagery. In doing so, JPSS-1 advances the capabilities of a constellation of civilian weather-monitoring satellites that orbit the earth from pole to pole. The recurrence of extreme weather is nearly assured. Funding for the JPSS program is not. The JPSS program will continue until 2038 — if Congress continues to fund it.”
See more from The Hill HERE:
 

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“19,000-pound Chinese space station falling “uncontrolled” back to Earth”
“It’s pretty common for old satellites and other “space junk” to come falling back down to Earth. But while hundreds of pieces of debris come down each year, scientists are nervously watching a 19,000-pound Chinese space station’s course because its out-of-control route is making it impossible to figure out where it will crash, CBS Denver reports. The unmanned space lab named Tiangong-1 is expected to crash back down to Earth at some point in March. China reportedly lost control of the lab nearly two years ago, in June of 2016. The Chinese government later released an estimate that predicted Tiangong-1 would come down at some point in late 2017. The vague guess has led experts to conclude that the country’s space agency has lost all ability to direct the crashing station’s course or know where it will land. According to a November analysis by the European Space Agency (ESA), the spacecraft’s orbit “will inevitably decay sometime between January and March 2018, when it will make an uncontrolled reentry.” “Even a couple of days before it re-enters we probably won’t know better than six or seven hours, plus or minus, when it’s going to come down,” Harvard astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell told The Guardian in 2016. “Not knowing when it’s going to come down translates as not knowing where its going to come down.”While much of the spacecraft would likely burn up in the atmosphere, ESA experts say portions could survive and reach Earth’s surface.
See more from CBS NEWS HERE:
 

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“Cold Weather Can Mess With Your Phone. Here’s How to Protect It”
“Apple says its iPhones are made to operate in temperatures above 32 degrees. Much of the country won’t even creep above that mark until the second week of January – and tens of millions of Americans are enduring lows in the negative double digits. In conditions like these, many smartphones will be start experiencing problems like shutting off, shortened battery life, display problems or even the glass shattering. Most smartphone batteries are lithium-ion, which can stop discharging electricity in extremely cold temperatures, Roger Gurney, owner of Arctic Tech Solutions, explained to USA Today. Here are a few tricks you can use to keep your phone working in Arctic temperatures.”
See more from TIME HERE:

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“Here’s why the US is getting colder while the world gets warmer”
“WHY IS IT SO COLD? Super cold air is normally locked up in the Arctic in the polar vortex , which is a gigantic circular weather pattern around the North Pole. A strong polar vortex keeps that cold air hemmed in. “Then when it weakens, it causes like a dam to burst,” and the cold air heads south, said Judah Cohen, a winter storm expert for Atmospheric Environmental Research, a commercial firm outside Boston. “This is not record-breaking for Canada or Alaska or northern Siberia, it’s just misplaced,” said Cohen, who had forecast a colder than normal winter for much of the U.S. IS THIS UNUSUAL? Yes, but more for how long — about 10 days — the cold has lasted, than how cold it has been. On Tuesday, Boston tied its seven-day record for the most consecutive days at or below 20 degrees that was set exactly 100 years ago. More than 1,600 daily records for cold were tied or broken in the last week of December, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. For Greg Carbin of the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center, the most meaningful statistics are how last week’s average temperature was the second coldest in more than a century of record-keeping for Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit and Kansas City, third coldest in Pittsburgh and fifth coldest in New York City.”
See more from KATU HERE:
 

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“News Flash: Lightning Deaths Hit a Record Low in 2017”
“Deaths from from lightning strikes hit a record low in 2017 in the United States, according to a new report. There were 16 lightning-related fatalities in 2017, breaking the previous low of 23 deaths in 2013, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). The records go back to the 1940s, when farmers using tractors and other farm equipment made up a large proportion of the 200 to 400 people who died from lightning every year, Live Science reported previously. “While we don’t like to see any lightning deaths, the continuing downward trend in yearly fatalities is encouraging,” John Jensenius, a NSW lightning safety specialist, told reporters in an email.”
See more from Live Science HERE:

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“Frozen Family Fun: Try These Cold-Weather Science Experiments”
“Record-cold temperatures sweeping across parts of the Midwest, East Coast and Southeast likely have many shuttered indoors with the heat cranked up. Lengthy stints inside can be a recipe for cabin fever. For those looking to keep their kiddos occupied and have chill family time, there’s a way to use the extreme cold for some entertainment (and sneak in a little science education, too). Here, LiveScience has rounded up a few fun experiments that can be done with just a little time outdoors (make sure to bundle up!), from making frozen soap bubbles to creating your own colorful snow. (There are also some experiments to make sure the little ones don’t try.)” 
See more from Live Science HERE:
 

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“15 Times Running Water Was No Match For This Crazy Cold Weather”
“Mother Nature’s New Year’s gift to the U.S. appears to be cold weather not suitable for humans. From the beautifully icy Niagara Falls to frozen fountains as far south as Texas, running water is definitely no match for these record low temperatures. See how this extremely cold weather is affecting waterfalls, rivers and even car washes across the country.”
See more from Huffington Post HERE:
 

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“China hails ‘first Antarctica flight’ for its tourists”
“According to Chinese media, the country’s first commercial flight to Antarctica brought 22 lucky tourists to the exotic destination this weekend. The trip is hailed as a milestone – but is it really? And what does it tell us about China’s geopolitical ambitions in the region? Is it really a first? Described in Chinese papers as the beginning of a new era in the country’s tourism to Antarctica, the trip took the select few from Hong Kong all the way to the actual South Pole. That meant a 15-hour flight to South Africa, refuelling in Cape Town and then another 5.5 hours to Antarctica. From there, it’s another five to six hours to the pole, where the flight landed on a 2.5-km (1.5-mile) runway carved into the ice. The Chinese tour operator describes the trip as a milestone, saying it means Chinese tourists no longer have to book via foreign agencies. But how much of a first was it really? The leg from Cape Town onwards was in fact organised by White Desert, a tour operator who offers such trips to the pole on a regular basis. That means it was rather a co-operation between a Chinese tour organiser and one of the established players based in South Africa. Does a trip that long strike you as something of an ordeal? Just consider that the usual tourist route is significantly longer.”
See more from BBC HERE:
 

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Thanks for checking in and don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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