November Snow In The Twin Cities
With the snow that moved through the metro Friday, we are already up to a half an inch of snow officially this month at MSP airport. During the month of November we do average 9.3″ of snow in the Twin Cities, however we only average about 1.8 days during the month with an inch or more of snow according to the Minnesota State Climatology Office. The last November we saw around average snowfall was back in 2014, with 9.4″ fell. Only 5.1″ of snow fell in November 2015 and 2.3″ in November 2016. The top November amount? Well, the Halloween Blizzard of 1991 factors into this one, as 46.9″ fell during November 1991 (18.5″ of that was on November 1st). That goes down as the snowiest month on record for the Twin Cities.
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Feels Like November – 4th Climate Assessment
By Paul Douglas
People who didn’t believe or accept the science a year ago may not change their minds based on the latest National Climate Assessment. But there is now little chance that observed warming worldwide can linked to anything other than greenhouse gas emissions. No, this isn’t just another natural cycle. Minnesota’s weather will be cold today, but globally this period is the warmest in the history of modern civilization.
16 of the warmest years on record for the planet occurred in the last 17 years. Sea levels have already risen 7-8 inches and coastal flooding is increasing. That’s not a model, that’s reality. Which begs the question: what obligations do we have to our kids, and their kids?
A ripple of low pressure may spark a coating of flurries later today; another fistful of flakes on Thursday as a reinforcing cold front arrives. Even though the atmosphere will be cold enough for snow all week no significant moisture is brewing. Snow blowers won’t see serious action anytime soon.
Long-range models insist our recent cold spell will give way to 40s and a few 50s by mid-November.
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Extended Twin Cities Forecast
MONDAY: Coating of flakes later. High 33. Low 24. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind W 3-8 mph.
TUESDAY: Chilly, but at least the sun is out. High 32. Low 23. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Fading sun, not as cold. High 41. Low 28. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: Morning flurries. Feels like December. High 30. Low 17. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
FRIDAY: Bright sunshine, consider a coat. High 29. Low 22. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.
SATURDAY: A little snow or ice possible. High 33. Low 27. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind S 8-13 mph.
SUNDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, a drier day. High 40. Low 29. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind W 5-10 mph.
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This Day in Weather History
November 6th
1993: Heavy lake effect snow falls over the eastern portion of Lake of the Woods. 3-4 inches around Baudette.
1947: A snowstorm moves through Minnesota with high winds, causing a million dollars in damage.
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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
November 6th
Average High: 47F (Record: 73F set in 1893)
Average Low: 31F (Record: 0F set in 1991)
Average Precipitation: 0.06″ (Record: 1.54″ set in 2000)
Average Snow: 0.2″ (Record: 1.6″ set in 1933)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 6th
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Sunset: 4:54 PM
*Length Of Day: 9 hours, 55 minutes and 19 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~2 minute and 39 seconds
*Latest Sunrise At/After 7:00 AM: November 7th (7:00 AM)
*Earliest Sunset: December 5th-13th (4:31 PM)
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Minnesota Weather Outlook
Another cold early November day is ahead on Monday, as highs will only be in the 30s across southern Minnesota. It’ll be even colder up north, where Roseau might see their first high in the teens since March 13. A quick moving system will bring the southern two-thirds a chance of some light accumulating snow during the day.
Highs across the state will be a good 10-20 degrees below average for early November. Make sure you grab those coats as you head out in the morning!
We’ll remain cool as we head through the expended period. Some models are trying to show temperatures climbing into the 40s later this week, but even then that is still below average for this time of year. Models have quickly backed off the idea of 50s next weekend, as it looks like we will stay with a cold bias through at least the middle of the month.
With a quick moving system Monday, there is the potential of up to a half an inch or so of snow across central and southern Minnesota, particularly during the afternoon hours.
Actual precipitation that is locked up in that snow is expected to be light. This graphic shows not only rainfall but melted precipitation as well.
After our snow chance Monday, precipitation chances will be minimal until next weekend. There is at least a chance of a system moving across the upper Midwest next weekend, which would bring the chance of accumulating precipitation (potentially in the form of snow). This is something we will have to keep an eye on this week, especially since it is a ways out and we do have model divergence on what exactly will occur next week here in the upper Midwest. As they say: stay tuned!
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National Forecast
Showers and storms will be possible along a cold front stretching from the Northeast to the lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. This is ushering in some cooler air behind it as we head toward the middle of the week for these areas. Snow will continue across the Northern High Plains through the day, with light snow developing across the upper Midwest.
Highs ahead of the cold front marching south and east will be above average by a good 5-15 degrees on Monday. Behind that – all the way to the west coast – cooler than average highs will be found. Parts of Montana will be at least 30 degrees below average for early November.
A few areas of heavier rain will be found from Sunday toward the end of this work week. One will be across parts of the eastern U.S., with a second found along the Pacific coasts of Oregon and northern California. In that second area, rainfall amounts could top 4″ through Friday morning.
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Searching For Past Droughts In Israel
A recent study shows the history of drought in Israel, which could help to show implications now and in the future. From Phys.Org: “Earlier this year, Goldstein and his colleagues at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory published a study based on similar sediments showing that droughts far worse than any recorded by humans have struck this region. Drilling a core of sediment from below the floor of the nearby Dead Sea, they extracted a record going back 200,000 years. Here they found thick sequences of salt precipitated out during the hottest, driest times, when rainfall in this already sere region apparently plummeted to as little as a fifth of modern levels. This was 120,000 years ago, and again 10,000 years ago, both before the time of the ancient Hebrews and other early civilizations.” (Image: Goldstein inspects an ancient salt cave; its countless folded layers may hold clues to past climates. Credit: Columbia University)
Climate Meeting Starts Monday
Some U.S. officials will attend the COP 23 meeting, in which nations hope to figure out how to implement the Paris climate accord. More from Scientific American: “A shadow looms over this year’s United Nations climate change meeting. The 23rd Conference of the Parties—or its shorthand, COP 23—begins Monday in Bonn, Germany. It commences just five months after Pres. Donald Trump announced he would withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate accord, which aims to limit global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius—or ideally, 1.5 degrees C. The international community strongly reprimanded the Trump administration for its decision, and it has vowed to disregard that setback and forge ahead at COP23. No other countries have reneged on the accord.” (Image: In this picture taken on December 12, 2015 Foreign Affairs Minister and President-designate of COP21 Laurent Fabius (C), raises hands with Secretary General of the United Nations Ban Ki Moon (2-L) and France’s President Francois Hollande (R) after adoption of a historic global warming pact at the COP21 Climate Conference in Le Bourget, north of Paris. Credit: Francois Guillot Getty Images)
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Thanks for checking in and have a great Monday! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!
– D.J. Kayser
